Cyclone Incoming? Low-Pressure Area Forms Over Arabian Sea; To Intensify Into Depression By May 24, Says IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the formation of a low-pressure area over the east-central Arabian Sea, which is expected to intensify into a depression by May 24 or during the next 36 hours.

According to the IMD’s Tropical Weather Outlook, issued on May 22, a low-pressure system has developed over the east-central Arabian Sea off the Konkan-Goa coast. This system formed under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation located near the north Karnataka-Goa coastline.

The IMD stated that the system persisted in the same area as of 8:30 am on May 22. Forecasts suggest a northward movement and a likely intensification into a depression over the next 36 hours, with the possibility of further strengthening thereafter.

Cloud patterns over the region show scattered to broken low and medium-level clouds, along with intense to very intense convection, indicating strong vertical air movement, which is favourable for cyclone development. These conditions extend across the east-central Arabian Sea, the Maharashtra coast and surrounding areas, stated IMD.

The weather conditions — such as low to moderate vertical wind changes, strong equatorial waves and significant westerly and easterly wind anomalies — are suitable for a cyclone to form. Although models differ on the exact intensity and path, all agree on a general northward movement and intensification into a depression by May 24. IMD has assigned a moderate to high probability for this outcome.

If the depression intensifies into a cyclonic storm, then it will be called Cyclone Shakthi. "Shakhti" was suggested by Sri Lanka as part of the pre-determined list of neutral names suggested by countries bordering the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The word "Shakhti" is an ancient, rich Tamil word that stands for "power".

In addition to the Arabian Sea, the IMD is also tracking developing conditions over the Bay of Bengal. A low-pressure area is likely to form over the west-central and adjoining north Bay of Bengal around May 27. The system is expected to become more marked in the two days following its formation.

At present, cloud patterns show scattered low to medium clouds with strong thunderstorm activity over the north and west-central Bay of Bengal and the south Andaman Sea. Other areas of the Bay, including the north Andaman Sea, are also seeing moderate to strong storm activity. The IMD has assigned a low to moderate probability for the development of a depression over the Bay of Bengal from May 28 onwards.

Under the influence of these systems, the IMD stated that many places in India are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall in the next few days.

South peninsular India:

Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (reaching 40-50 kmph) with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over Kerala, Karnataka during May 22-28.

Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is very likely over Coastal Karnataka on May 24. Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (reaching 30-40 kmph) is very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema and Telangana during the next 5 days.

Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during till May 26 and over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on May 22, May 26 & 27 with isolated very heavy rainfall over Tamilnadu Puducherry & Karaikal and Telangana on May 22.

West India:

Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (reaching 40-50 kmph) is very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada from May 22-28 and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Gujarat from May 22 to 25.

Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is very likely over Konkan & Goa from May 22 to 24 and over Madhya Maharashtra on May 24. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra from May 22 to May 28.

Northeast India:

Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (reaching 40-50 kmph) is likely over Northeast India during the next 7 days, with Isolated heavy rainfall over Assam & Meghalaya from May 22 to 27. Heavy rainfall is also likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura from May 22-25 and over Arunachal Pradesh from May 23 to 26.

East & Central India:

Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (reaching 40-50 kmph) is likely over West Bengal & Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha & Bihar till May 26. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh on May 22 and 23 and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on May 22. Heavy rainfall is also expected over Andaman & Nicobar Islands till May 26, and over Vidarbha on May 24, and over Odisha on May 27 and 28.

In its weather bulletin released at 2:30 pm on May 22, the IMD stated that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala in the next two to three days.

The monsoon is also projected to gradually push its way into additional regions — including more areas of the southern Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, Tamil Nadu the southern and central parts of the Bay of Bengal, the northern Bay of Bengal and parts of Northeast India — during the same timeframe.