Geopolitical Alpha: How One Trader Turned Nicolas Maduro's Capture Into A $400,000 Payday
This mystery account was generated in the previous month, with the speculator mopping up $96 in contracts on Dec. 27 and made similar bets in the coming days, which paid off on Dec. 27.
An anonymous trader raked in a profit of $410,000 after betting on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro being evicted from his position, according to a report from Reuters.
The trader made this money by using a Polymarket account to build up positions in contracts with regards to Maduro's expulsion. This at the time felt like a long shot and would likely be perceived as unlikely before the US captured the Venezuelan president and his wife.
Polymarket is a prediction market which offers yes-or-no contracts that one can trade that facilitate users to place wagers on the outcomes of real-world events, such as sports, entertainment, politics and the economy. When a contract retailing at a few cents pays out at $1, traders who have access to information not yet made public tied to such contracts can make large profits within the course of hours or a day.
The bets were worth $34,000 before Maduro was seized and shot up in value as the news broke regarding his detainment in a US military operation, according to Polymarket data.
Prominent stock indices also went up and oil prices increased on Monday after the news broke, Venezuela's default-stricken government bonds also shot up on the back of anticipation of an expansive and comprehensive sovereign debt restructuring.
Government bonds and shares of Petroleos de Venezuela, the state's oil company surged up to 10 cents per dollar, which amounts to 30% as investors displayed bullishness regarding the development.
This anonymous trade is likely to draw negative attention from US state legislators who have been advocating for more stringent norms regarding insider trade. This includes a bipartisan push to potentially ban stock trading for parliamentarians.
Democratic Congressman Richie Torres announced plans in light of this news to put forward a bill that would disallow federal employees, elected representatives and legislators from betting on prediction market platforms due to the potential to have access to information much before the general public does.
This mystery account was generated in the previous month with the speculator mopping up $96 in contracts on Dec. 27 and made similar bets in the coming days which paid off on Dec. 27 with Maduro's detainment.
US residents do not have access to this betting platform, but access can be gained by passing location restrictions via VPN.
