Volatility, Not Direction, Has Marked January For Indian Markets — Check Defining Trends
Looking back over the past decade, the Nifty 50 has closed January in the green only twice.
January has often been a mixed bag for Indian equities. Looking back over the past decade, the Nifty 50 has closed the month in the green only twice, delivering an average return of –0.31%. The index saw strong gains of over 4.5% in 2017 and 2018, while a sharp decline of more than 4.5% was recorded in 2016.
The broader market has shown similar volatility. The Nifty Midcap 100 finished higher in four of the last ten Januaries, with an average return of –0.51%. There were three instances of a fall of more than 5% in 2016, 2019 and 2025, matched by three instances of gains exceeding 5% in 2017, 2020 and 2024.
The Nifty Smallcap 100 also closed in the green four times in the last decade, posting an average return of –1%. The index fell around 10% in 2016 and 2025, while gains of more than 5% were seen in 2017, 2020 and 2024.
Sector trends point to clear winners and laggards. Over the past ten years, the IT index was positive in seven out of 10 Januaries, with an average return of 1.4%. Auto (positive 6 times; 0.6% average return) and Energy (positive 5 times; 0.5% average return) also fared relatively well. In contrast, Banking closed higher only 4 times with an average return of –0.5%, FMCG was positive 4 times with –0.8% average returns, while Real Estate managed 3 positive Januaries with –0.5% average returns. The biggest underperformers were Metals (–1.9%) and Pharma (–2.1%).
A handful of individual stocks also showed striking consistency. Only four stocks with market capitalisation above Rs 10,000 crore have delivered six consecutive positive Januaries:
RVNL (24.5%),
Indian Bank (8%),
Hero MotoCorp (5.8%), and
Jyothy Labs (4.3%).
On the flip side, five stocks with market capitalisation above Rs 2,000 crore have posted six straight negative Januaries:
Zee Entertainment (–12.4%),
GM Breweries (–9.5%),
Spandana Sphoorty (–9%),
Rane Holdings (–6.6%), and
Stylam (–5.9%).
Together, the historical data underline a key message for investors heading into January: seasonality exists, but it doesn’t guarantee direction, and that volatility has often been the defining feature.
