US Strike On Venezuela: Analysts See Short-Term Spike In Oil, Gold Prices — Check Outlook
Gold, which ended last week down over 4% due to profit-booking, regained favor as a safe-haven asset amid heightened geopolitical risk, say analysts.
In a major geopolitical development, the United States carried out a large-scale military strike against Venezuela on Saturday. US President Donald Trump announced the operation on his social media platform, Truth Social, confirming that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife have been captured and flown out of the country.
Trump wrote: “The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. …… Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Market Impact And Commodity Outlook
Following the strike, market experts anticipate a gap-up opening for crude oil, gold, and silver prices. However, they noted that Venezuela’s economy is not large enough to significantly impact Indian equities, which are expected to remain stable.
Gold, which ended last week down over 4% due to profit-booking, regained favor as a safe-haven asset amid heightened geopolitical risk. MCX Gold rose more than 1% in early trade as COMEX Gold breached the $4,400 level. According to Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities at Axis Securities, the near-term outlook remains positive as long as $4,250 holds on the downside. On MCX, prices could touch Rs 1,40,000 per 10 gm if Rs 1,32,000 remains intact.
Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, said the escalation adds geopolitical risk and could disrupt Venezuelan crude supply. “Markets are less focused on Venezuela’s current production and more on how political control plays out. If US actions lead to an interim or opposition-led administration, oil prices will respond to how quickly that authority can assert control, negotiate export arrangements, and secure recognition,” he noted.
Maxwell added that short-term risks are bullish for crude due to operational disruptions and legal uncertainty, while a credible interim government could eventually bring more Venezuelan barrels to market, which would be bearish long-term.
Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, told Mint: “US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension, fueling uncertainty. I expect a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, etc.” Gupta projected COMEX gold could reach $4,380 per ounce and silver $75–78 per ounce. Brent crude may touch $62–65 per barrel. On MCX, gold could hit Rs 1,40,000 per 10 gm, silver Rs 2,45,000 per kg, and crude Rs 5,200–5,300 per barrel.
