- US and Iran held ceasefire talks in Pakistan but failed to reach an agreement
- The conflict disrupted the Middle East and affected Strait of Hormuz trade clarity
- Indian markets posted strongest weekly gain in five years amid ceasefire talks news
US and Iran held ceasefire discussions in Pakistan on Sunday, April 12, but failed to reach an agreement. The geopolitical conflict has disrupted the Middle East for over two straight months. Both sides also failed to provide clarity of movement via Strait of Hormuz, a key connectivity point for global trade.
This comes after the Indian stock market posted their strongest weekly gain in more than five years on Friday, driven by improved global sentiment after Washington and Tehran agreed to hold ceasefire talks. The NSE Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex rallied nearly 6% during the week, marking their best performance since the first week of February 2021 as uncertainties over the conflict continue, while Q4 earnings season kicked in.
Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty, an early market indicator for the Indian stock market closed 0.3% or 71.5 points lower at 24,020 points on Saturday amid doubts over how the ceasefire deal will take shape between US and Iran.
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Last week, US President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi indicated that transit through the Strait of Hormuz could be permitted during this period if the US suspends all military actions against the Islamic Republic.
Following the development, GIFT Nifty gained by over 3.4%, or over 750 points at 23,863, while benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply. All sectoral indices traded in the green, with gains led by the Realty index up nearly 7%, followed by Auto, Bank, and Financial Services.
Market Remains Fragile
Highlighting the near-term outlook for the market, Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd said, "Despite the recent rebound, overall market sentiment remains fragile, heavily influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments, the depreciation of the Indian rupee, and elevated crude oil prices."
Coming to technical levels, Gour said, "the market structure continues to show signs of weakness, with volatility remaining high as reflected in the elevated India VIX levels. Nifty witnessed a pullback after a sharp recovery and closed above 24000; 23682 is an immediate support. 23470 and 23330 are the next support levels. 24500 and 25000 are immediate resistance levels. BankNifty also witnessed a pullback; 54500 is an immediate support level. 54150 and 53600 are the next support levels. 57000 and 58000 are immediate resistance levels."
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