 11_07_24.jpg?downsize=773:435 "UBS Raises Rupee's Range Forecast To 90–92 Per Dollar In 2026 As It Sees Near-Term Risks")
- UBS expects the rupee to trade between 90 and 92 per US dollar from Mar to Dec 2026
- The USDINR broke 90 amid India-US trade deal uncertainty and RBI's passive intervention
- A trade deal could reduce tariffs from 50% to 15-25%, improving rupee sentiment by Dec
The Indian rupee may move between of 90–92 per US dollar range through March 2026 to December 2026, according to UBS Global Research. Near-term downside pressures are at play for the domestic currency, but there could be positive news ahead.
Earlier, UBS forecasted the rupee may move in 87.00–88.00 range against the US dollar from March 2026 to December 2026.
Earlier this week, the USDINR pair broke the psychologically crucial level of 90.00 against the greenback amid uncertainties around the India and US trade deal, and a lack of aggressive intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, the brokerage said.
The sentiment for the India rupee may improve significantly when India and the US will reach a deal. This could be as early as the end of December, which will bring down the tariff rate to around 15–25% from the current 50% rate.
The US Supreme Court will likely provide its judgement on the international Emergency Economic Powers Act's legality in early 2026. In case tariffs imposed using this act proves unauthorised, that will reset the whole trade situation for India with the US. The tariffs may come down to 25%, according to USB Global Research.
Once the tariffs come down, importers will likely stop front-loading of their dollar purchases, and exporters will resume dollar sales.
India will be part of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate index, which will bring the larger impact as this inclusion with 1% weighting will attract $20–$25 billion passive flows, phased over 10–12 months, the global brokerage said.
Meanwhile, India's partial inclusion to FTSE Ruessell EMGBI began in September at 9–10% weighting. Indian bonds are getting added monthly over six equal tranches to reach the full weigh by next February. The flows could be $3–$5 billion phased over six months, the global brokerage said.
UBS Global Research said that the ease in imbalance of the onshore US dollar demand and supply could stabilise the USDINR pair. Corporate investors' sentiment also need to improve for the pair's stability.
Watch LIVE TV, Get Stock Market Updates, Top Business, IPO and Latest News on NDTV Profit.
