Jio Platforms' next growth phase could hinge on how effectively it converts its massive subscriber base into higher revenue, stronger cash flows and a larger digital services business, according to brokerages Nomura, Motilal Oswal and Elara Capital, which have initiated coverage on the company with ‘Buy' ratings.
While tariff hikes could provide an immediate boost to average revenue per user (ARPU), the brokerages see home broadband expansion, digital platforms and lower capital expenditure as key drivers of growth over the coming years. Their forecasts point to a shift from Jio's subscriber-led expansion towards monetisation, with the potential to strengthen profitability and cash generation.
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Tariff Hikes Could Be The First Major Trigger
Nomura expects a 15% industry-wide tariff hike in November–December 2026 to provide an immediate trigger for higher ARPU. The brokerage believes Jio could increasingly focus on tariff repair through tiered pricing instead of flat unlimited-data bundles, alongside premiumisation through 5G network slicing.
Motilal Oswal expects tariff hikes of around 15% from March 2027 to support Jio Platforms' growth, alongside subscriber additions, home broadband expansion and the scaling up of digital offerings.
Nomura estimates that India's mobile market could expand from Rs 2.9 trillion in FY26 to Rs 5.2 trillion by FY31. It also expects Jio Platforms to deliver an EBITDA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 13.5% over FY26–FY29.
Motilal Oswal projects a 14% CAGR in consolidated revenue, 15% in reported EBITDA and 20% in profit after tax over the same period.
Home Broadband And Digital Services Offer The Next Leg
Jio's broadband business is another key growth opportunity, given India's relatively low household penetration.
Nomura said Jio had 28.6 million fixed broadband subscribers in June 2026, compared with Airtel's 14.7 million. With home broadband penetration at around 21% in India, against a global average of more than 70%, the brokerage sees an addressable base of over 300 million households.
Motilal Oswal expects Jio to account for around 73% of incremental net additions in the home broadband industry over FY26–FY29. It also expects the company's revenue market share in wireless services to rise by around 100 basis points to 43.3% over the period.
Elara Capital, meanwhile, sees digital services as Jio's most important future growth driver. Although the segment contributes around 12% of revenue and 5% of EBITDA in FY27 estimates, Elara expects digital services revenue to double and EBITDA to triple by FY30, growing at twice the pace of the core telecom business.
The opportunity spans consumer services such as entertainment, productivity and the Internet of Things, alongside enterprise offerings including cloud, communications and managed services.
Falling Capex Could Strengthen Cash Generation
The brokerages also see scope for a sharp improvement in free cash flow as Jio's investment cycle eases.
Nomura said capital expenditure declined to around 23% of revenue in FY26 from approximately 35% in FY25. It expects Jio Platforms to become net debt-free by FY29.
Motilal Oswal estimates cumulative free cash flow of Rs 1.46 trillion over FY26–FY29 and also expects the company to reach a net cash position by FY29.
Jio's proprietary 5G and unlicensed-band radio technologies could provide an additional growth avenue through international licensing partnerships. Nomura said the company is initially targeting up to 12 strategic partnerships, with potential access to 1.5 billion users across the US, Germany, South America, East Asia and Africa.
Jio Platforms Has Already Achieved Brokerage Targets
Jio Platforms shares listed at Rs 1,358 apiece, a premium of a little over 21% to the IPO price of Rs 1,119, and touched an intraday high of Rs 1,375.
The intraday high moved above the initial target prices set by all three brokerages i.e. Nomura at Rs 1,340, Motilal Oswal at Rs 1,350 and Elara Capital at Rs 1,367. All three have initiated coverage with ‘Buy' ratings.
Nomura's valuation is based on 12 times December 2028 forecast EBITDA, while Motilal Oswal and Elara Capital use 11.5 times FY29 estimated EBITDA or enterprise value-to-EBITDA, with Motilal Oswal also citing a discounted cash flow-backed valuation.
The main question ahead is whether tariff increases, broadband expansion and digital services can deliver the earnings and cash-flow growth underpinning the brokerages' longer-term investment theses. Nomura has flagged delays or smaller-than-expected tariff hikes, as well as higher handset and equipment costs, as downside risks.
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