Stock Recommendations Today: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Life On Brokerages' Radar

HDFC Bank Ltd. and ICICI Bank Ltd. were in sharp focus in Thursday's brokerage commentary, with analysts flagging strong operating performances and resilient asset quality in the March quarter.

While Jefferies and CLSA reiterated their bullish stance on ICICI Bank, citing stable profitability and continued investment momentum, HDFC Bank drew mixed reactions—Jefferies highlighted a rebound year ahead, but Macquarie pointed to the need for clearer improvement in growth and margins.

Analysts also weighed in on HDFC Life Insurance Co. Ltd., with opinions split over regulatory risks and future growth potential in value of new business.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about various stocks and sectors. Here are the key brokerage calls to watch on Monday.

Jefferies

• Retains a 'buy' rating on the stock and raises target price to Rs 2,340 apiece from earlier Rs 2,120, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

• Expects earnings to remain ahead and the lender to stay on track for a rebound year.

• Maintains HDFC Bank among top stock picks.

• Reports healthy operating performance.

• Sees credit growth improving in the fiscal years ending March 2026 and March 2027.

• Better cross-sells and stable credit costs expected to support core profitability.

• Believes rate cuts will temporarily impact net interest margins.

• Reduces earnings per share estimates by 3-4% for the fiscal years through March 2027.

Macquarie 

• Retains an 'outperform' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 2,300 apiece, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

• Says fourth quarter profit after tax was in line, with lower other income offset by stronger margins.

• Waiting for visible improvement in growth and margins.

• Sees growth at par with the overall banking system.

• Credit costs expected to remain stable.

• Believes improvement in net interest margins is a key catalyst for stock re-rating.

CLSA

• Retains an 'outperform' rating on the stock and raises target price to Rs 1,700 apiece from earlier Rs 1,600, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

• Calls it a strong fourth quarter and reiterates ICICI Bank as a top pick along with Bandhan Bank.

• Slows loan growth but sees improving profitability.

• Maintains that asset quality remains robust.

• Notes continued improvement in operating expenses.

Jefferies

• Retains a 'buy' rating on the stock and raises target price to Rs 1,710 apiece from earlier Rs 1,600, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

• Reports strong operating performance in the fourth quarter.

• Sees improvements in asset quality with decline in core retail slippages on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

• Notes continued investment in distribution.

• Reduces earnings per share estimates by 5% for the fiscal years through March 2027, citing a timing gap.

Morgan Stanley

• Retains an 'overweight' rating on the stock and raises target price to Rs 815 apiece from earlier Rs 760, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

• Reports a steady quarter, with value of new business slightly below estimates.

• Quality of results seen as strong, driven by positive operating variances and assumptions.

• Expects investor confidence to rise for 15% value of new business growth in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

• Continues engagement with the regulator and the government over concerns on bancassurance.

Macquarie 

• Retains a 'neutral' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 570 apiece, implying a potential upside/downside from the previous close.

• Says fourth quarter value of new business growth was in line.

• Miss on annual premium equivalent growth was offset by better-than-expected margins.

• Expects value of new business margins to remain in a narrow range.

• Annual premium equivalent growth aspirations remain a key monitorable.

• Flags upcoming bancassurance regulations as the key risk.

Jefferies

• Downgrades rating to 'hold' from 'outperform' and raises target price to Rs 765 apiece from earlier Rs 690, implying a potential upside from the previous close.

• Says value of new business margin of 25.6% is a strong outcome in a challenging year.

• Notes positive operating variances.

• Cites strong performance of the parent bank.

• Expects continued investments in the agency channel.

• Targets doubling of annual premium equivalent and value of new business over the next four to four-and-a-half years.

• Continues to apply a regulatory uncertainty discount on valuations.

JPMorgan

• Retained an 'underweight' rating on the stock and lowered target price to Rs 4,400 apiece from Rs 4,500, implying a potential downside of 4% from the previous close.

• Results sharply missed estimates due to uncertainty around auto tariffs.

• Clients in media and telecom remain cautious.

• Management expects better growth in the fiscal 2026 than in the current fiscal.

• Margins are expected to remain under pressure.

Morgan Stanley

• Retained an 'underweight' rating on the stock and lowered target price to Rs 4,660 apiece from Rs 5,400, implying a potential downside of 8% from the previous close.

• Fourth quarter showed signs of recovery but lacked macroeconomic support.

• Missed already-low expectations.

• Auto segment may see deal ramp-ups, but media continues to remain weak despite recent deal wins.

• Negative factors include weak exit revenue, continued earnings downgrade cycle, and expensive valuation.

Jefferies 

• Retained a 'buy' rating on the stock and lowered target price to Rs 1,660 apiece from Rs 1,700, implying a potential upside of 8% from the previous close.

• Revenue decline led to a disappointing fourth quarter.

• Revenue pressures were broad-based across verticals.

• Guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026 remains muted.

• Continues to see an attractive risk-reward balance.

Investec

• Upgraded to a 'buy' rating from 'hold' and lowered target price to Rs 1,575 apiece from earlier Rs 1,590, implying a potential upside of 10% from the previous close.

• Believes risks are already priced in, now waiting for recovery.

• Stock offers a 4.5% free cash flow yield even after 5.4% and 3.5% earnings per share cuts for fiscals ending March 2026 and March 2027 respectively.

• Expects growth rebound once enterprise spending stabilises.

• Says growing technology debt could drive investments for artificial intelligence readiness.

Jefferies

• Retained a 'hold' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 255 apiece, implying a potential downside of 2% from the previous close.

• Company plans to stay domestic indefinitely.

• Blinkit could adopt a one-party inventory model if the move goes through.

• However, return on investment upside may be limited.

• Capping foreign shareholding is likely aimed at mitigating regulatory risk even as current models comply with law.

• Move may trigger a cut in MSCI index weight.

• Impact of interim breach of new foreign investment cap remains unclear.

CLSA

• Retained a 'high conviction outperform' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 375 apiece, implying a potential upside of 43% from the previous close.

• Structure as an Indian-owned and controlled firm gives Blinkit a competitive edge.

• Move is expected to support margin expansion.

• Blinkit can use its scale to expand product offerings and improve pricing.

• However, this could increase working capital needs.

• Foreign investment cap may reduce index weights but creates space for active investors.

Jefferies

• Retained a 'buy' rating on the stock and raised target price to Rs 5,000 apiece from Rs 4,750, implying a potential upside of 14% from the previous close.

• Fourth-quarter core operations in line, while non-core income was better than expected.

• Assets under management growth moderated but market share held steady.

• Operating profit growth slowed.

• Non-cash expenses from employee stock option plans and PSU grants may weigh on reported profit for fiscal 2026.

CLSA

• Retained an 'outperform' rating on the stock and lowered target price to Rs 4,545 apiece from Rs 4,710, implying a potential upside of 2% from the previous close.

• Customer behaviour remains resilient.

• Volatile markets have raised overall risk.

• Forecasts 15%-16% growth in asset under management over fiscals ending March 2026 and March 2027.

• New employee stock option plan proposed.

• Operating expenditure growth forecast at 12-13% year-on-year.

• Sees strong domestic and export opportunities.

• Defence electronics expected to grow at 1.5x–2x of overall defence capital expenditure.

• Private players to benefit from de-licensing and new partnerships.

• Initiates 'buy' rating on Bharat Dynamics Ltd. with a target price of Rs 1,650 apiece.

• Initiates 'buy' rating on Data Patterns (India) Ltd. with a target price of Rs 2,300 apiece.

• Initiates 'buy' rating on Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. with a target price of Rs 5,150 apiece.

• Retains an 'underperform' rating on the stock and lowers target price to Rs 2,450 apiece from earlier Rs 4,530, implying a potential downside of 20% from the previous close.

• As planned, Siemens has demerged its energy segment.

• Loss of energy vertical removes a key growth driver.

• Core earnings estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11% for the fiscal years through March 2027.

• Valuations remain expensive.

• Retains an 'overweight' rating on the stock and lowers target price to Rs 3,877 apiece from earlier Rs 4,278, implying a potential upside of 5% from the previous close.

• Company continues to grow despite macro headwinds.

• Seen as a key proxy on capital expenditure growth in India and the Middle East.

• Core earnings forecast to grow at 20% compound annual growth rate over fiscal years through March 2028.

• Closed the fiscal year ending March 2025 with a mega order win for the third year in a row.

• Domestic order inflow expected to pick up in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

• Middle East opportunity pipeline is worth $80 billion and growing.

• Retains a 'neutral' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 255 apiece, implying a potential upside of 3% from the previous close.

• Growth is expected to be led by industrial paints rather than decorative.

• Company is targeting 14%-15% Ebitda margin.

• India will continue to be the growth driver for the parent company in Japan.

• Decorative segment expected to recover in the second half of calendar year 2025.

• Retains an 'overweight' rating on Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. and lowers target price to Rs 308 apiece from earlier Rs 416, implying a potential downside of 5% from the previous close.

• Retains an 'overweight' rating on Oil India Ltd. and lowers target price to Rs 462 apiece from earlier Rs 625, implying a potential downside of 8% from the previous close.

• Target price revision reflects weaker crude oil prices.

• Both stocks have outperformed crude prices in most demand slowdown periods due to strong domestic demand and higher average selling prices.

• Dividend yields continue to support returns.

• Access to international capital markets is improving.

• BlackRock invested in Adani Group’s $750 million bond issue in April 2025.

• This is the group’s largest overseas fundraising since the US Department of Justice indictment in November 2024.

• Reinforces group’s ability to raise foreign capital for expansion.

• This is crucial for Adani Green Energy and Adani Enterprises.

• Retains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 1,320 apiece, implying a potential upside of 12% from the previous close.

• Proposed acquisition implies an enterprise value to Ebitda multiple of 17 times versus Adani Ports’ own valuation of 17.5 times for the fiscal year ending March 2025.

• The deal could boost volume and Ebitda by 8% and 7% respectively.

• Management believes the acquisition will be cash flow and Ebitda accretive from day one.

• Adds HDFC Bank, JSW Steel Ltd., Avenue Supermarts Ltd.

• Removes Trent, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India.

• Expects HDFC Bank’s credit cost to remain contained, with return on equity set to improve.

• Sees a slowdown in same-store sales growth for Trent due to weaker urban consumption.

• Tech Mahindra has fallen 25% and underperformed the broader Indian market by 23% year-to-date.

• Expects private sector banks to outperform state-run peers over the next 12 months.

• Retains an 'outperform' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 518 apiece, implying a potential upside of 15% from the previous close.

• Recent acquisition places it in direct competition with players like Tata Sampann and Organic Tattva in the organic staples segment.

• Signed a definitive agreement to acquire the remaining 73.5% stake in Mother Sparsh.

• ITC estimates the Indian baby care market at Rs 3,000 crore and growing at a high-teens rate.