Stock Recommendations Today: Inflation, Oil, Consumption On Brokerages' Radar

JPMorgan notes a sharp rise of over 5% on heightened security risks in the Middle East, and maintains a base case for oil prices in the low-to-mid $60s for the rest of 2025, and $60 in 2026.

BofA believes the incoming reduction in taxes will create multiplier effect of Rs 2.5 lakh crore. While personal credit growth improvement is likely, the brokerage hold that this should aid household consumption trends.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about various stocks and sectors. Here are the analyst calls to keep an eye out for on Friday.

JPMorgan On Oil Markets Weekly

• Oil surged 5% on heightened security risks in the Middle East.

• Prices reflect a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario.

• Maintain base case for oil prices in the low-to-mid $60s for the rest of 2025, $60 in 2026.

• An attack on Iran could spike oil prices to $120, driving US CPI to 5%.

• Closure of Hormuz is a low-risk event as Iran would be damaging its own position.

• Main players in the Middle East have strong incentives to keep the conflict contained.

BofA On Household Consumption

• India's consumption indicators set to drive growth.

• Expect private consumption growth to outperform GDP growth.

• Wage growth appears to be stabilising in urban areas, remains elevated in rural areas.

• See real wages improving materially, can lead to greater discretionary spending.

• Sharp pickup in wage growth unlikely, but see room for stability in wage growth.

• Personal credit growth improvement likely, should aid household consumption trends.

• See score for household disposable incomes to grow by one percentage point higher than nominal GDP growth.

• Reduction in taxes will create multiplier effect of Rs 2.5 lakh crore.

JPMorgan On Titan Company

• Maintain 'neutral' with a price target of Rs 3,350, implying a potential 5% downside.

• Multiple drivers for market-share-led growth with steady margin.

• Jewelry demand has been resilient amid broader slowdown.

• Aiming for mid-high teens sustainable jewelry growth over medium term.

• Network expansion, omnichannel/international scale-up to drive growth.

• Studded jewelry seeing buyer growth in low-value segment, high-value solitaire stays muted.

• Confident of holding margin in guided 11-11.5% range.

UBS On IEX

• UBS maintained a 'buy' rating on Indian Energy Exchange with a price target of Rs 285, implying a 47% upside.

• Multi Commodity Exchange and National Stock Exchange have received SEBI approval to launch electricity derivatives.

• UBS sees meaningful potential for IEX from this additional revenue stream.

• MCX and NSE are likely to enter into agreements with IEX for electricity derivatives trading.

• The revenue model could be based on a revenue share (10%) or a step-up model tied to volume ranges.

Nomura On Inflation

• Inflation in India has dipped below 3% and is headed towards 2%, signaling a continued disinflationary trend.

• Nomura expects two more 25 basis points rate cuts, bringing the repo rate down to 5% by the end of 2025.

• Within core inflation, most categories remain capped, with core inflation expected to moderate to around 4.1%.

BofA On Auto

• Domestic demand modest across auto sub-segments.

• Some cost pressures building up near term on metals/regulations.

• Rare earth material shortage was a concern.

• Most companies have rare earth material stock to navigate near term.

• Limited confidence on quick resolution for rare earth is a risk to EV scale-up plans.

• Exports have been a silver lining, remain the source of growth delta for select companies.

UBS On L&T Finance

• UBS downgraded L&T Finance to 'neutral' with a target price of Rs 210, implying a 12% upside.

• The stock has seen a 39% run-up in the last three months.

• Stock price improvement reflects overall business progress.

• The stock has rerated to 1.7 times price-to-book value compared to a 5-year average of 1.2 times.

• Expects loan book CAGR of 20% and profit after tax CAGR of 16% for fiscals 2025 to 2027.

• Expects the microfinance share to decline from 27% to 24% during fiscals 2025 to 2027.

CLSA On Sterlite Tech

• Agreement with BSNL in favour of STL Networks (demerged entity), not Sterlite Tech.

• Sterlite Tech will likely only supply cables to STL Networks, a fraction of the order.

• Believe 10% up-move in stock on this development is excessive.

Jefferies On Cross Sector

• Observed healthy sales and EPS growth in the March quarter for Indian diversified stocks.

• EMS and summer plays showed strong performance, with some EPS cuts due to unseasonal first quarter rains.

• PVC prices are stabilising for building products.

• Graphite electrodes show improved demand-supply.

• Jefferies' top picks include Amber, Polycab, and Crompton.

• Dixon is rated 'underperform' due to specific industry risks.