Stock Picks Today: TCS, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank And More On Brokerages’ Radar

A host of global brokerages have rolled out fresh sector-level and stock-specific views on building materials, healthcare, pharmaceuticals and IT services ahead of the next session, covering names such as Rubicon Research, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance HCL Technologies and TCS.

They have also shared broader commentary on cement profitability trends into FY27, hospital capacity expansion in CY26, specialty pharma growth trajectories, near-term caution on IT services and banks, and evolving inflation dynamics, alongside their expectations for RBI policy actions and the interest-rate outlook.

• Jefferies maintains a constructive stance on the cement sector heading into 2026/FY27.

• Ambuja Cement is rated Buy with a target price cut to Rs 760 from Rs 770.

• JK Cement is rated Buy with a target price cut to Rs 7,000 from Rs 7,230.

• Dalmia Bharat is rated Buy with a target price marginally cut to Rs 2,620 from Rs 2,625.

• Jefferies expects the cement sector to build on FY26 profitability gains.

• Demand resilience remains intact despite volatility in government capex.

• Capacity additions are rising, but utilisation is expected to remain around 70%.

• A more consolidated market structure supports improved pricing discipline.

• Rising leverage could lead to a sharper balance between volumes and returns, enabling steady EBITDA per tonne expansion.

• Jefferies estimates EBITDA CAGR of 13–28% for covered companies over FY26–28.

• Nuvoco is upgraded to Buy, while Birla Corporation is downgraded to Hold.

• Jefferies maintains a selective positive view on hospitals, with capacity additions gaining momentum in CY26.

• Apollo Hospitals is rated Buy with a target price raised to Rs 9,250 from Rs 9,200.

• Max Healthcare is rated Buy with a target price cut to Rs 1,320 from Rs 1,400.

• Medanta is rated Buy with a target price cut to Rs 1,410 from Rs 1,460.

• Agarwal Eye is rated Hold with a target price raised to Rs 530 from Rs 480.

• Jefferies expects capacity additions to accelerate in CY26, with volume growth taking precedence over ARPOB.

• Max is expected to see the highest new bed additions, followed by Fortis and Apollo.

• CGHS rate revisions in Q3FY26 are expected to start reflecting in CY26 numbers.

• Execution remains critical.

• Jefferies prefers brownfield-led expansion over greenfield projects.

• Top picks are Max Healthcare and Fortis.

• Jefferies maintains a Buy rating on Navin Fluorine and hikes the target price to Rs 6,940 from Rs 6,635.

• SRF is maintained at Underperform, with the target price raised to Rs 2,660 from Rs 2,570.

• PI Industries is maintained at Buy with a target price of Rs 4,180.

• Crop protection innovators are guiding for low single-digit growth in 2026 amid continued pricing pressure.

• Refrigerant gas prices are expected to remain firm, supported by demand from the US and China.

• Navin Fluorine is Jefferies’ preferred pick, driven by broad-based growth, a strong project pipeline, and scope for earnings upgrades.

• PI Industries’ clouded growth visibility is reflected in its valuation.

• SRF’s valuation remains stretched, even as chemical growth could disappoint in FY27.

Citi on HCL Technologies

• Citi maintains a Neutral rating and hikes the target price to Rs 1,700 from Rs 1,670.

• Q3 performance was above expectations across most metrics.

• Deal TCV remained healthy.

• Forward-looking indicators continue to look better than peers.

• Management is focused on identifying new spending areas and targeting them.

• Citi raises FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 2% each.

• The brokerage maintains a cautious stance on IT services.

MS on HCL Tech

• Maintain Equal-weight; Hike TP to Rs 1760 from Rs 1680

• A standout performance, but reflected in premium multiples

• Surprised positively in Q3 and upgraded the full year outlook

• With this, FY27 visibility looks a tad better than earlier on growth

• Likelihood of 18% as the base margin for next year

• See estimates rising for consensus

• Strong trailing performance limits upside potential

Kotak Securities on HCL Tech

• Maintain Reduce; Hike TP to Rs 1680 from Rs 1500

• Good overall; products drive beat

• Beat led by products segment; services moderately better

• Strong net-new bookings aided by mega deal win

• See limited scope for significant EBIT margin expansion in a continued cost takeout-led demand environment

• Stock trades at a premium to peers and fully valued

Citi on TCS

• Citi maintains a Sell rating and cuts the target price to Rs 3,020 from Rs 3,030.

• Q3 performance was broadly in line with expectations.

• International business growth remained sluggish.

• Management noted international business growth of 0.4% QoQ and expressed confidence in CY26.

• Muted international growth is likely to disappoint investors.

• Expectations had risen following positive management commentary post Q2.

• Equipment and software contributed nearly half of QoQ growth.

Kotak Securities on TCS

• Kotak Securities maintains a Buy rating and hikes the target price to Rs 3,675 from Rs 3,550.

• Revenue growth remains muted, while margins are stable.

• Kotak expects TCS to narrow the revenue growth gap versus peers by FY27.

• Incumbency is seen as a challenge during the revenue deflation phase of GenAI adoption.

MS on TCS

• Maintain Overweight; Hike TP to Rs 3540 from Rs 3430

• Tepid trends but FY27 expectations to largely hold up

• Developed markets a tad weaker than expected in Q3

• Commentary suggests momentum holding up well

• Margins remaining stable at 25% with hope of 26%

• FY26 to exit at a better rate than last year, which should hold up expectations for next year

• CLSA maintains an Outperform rating with a target price of Rs 1,200.

• The brokerage believes current concerns around the bank are largely misconceived or temporary.

• FY27 is expected to be a bounceback year for HDFC Bank.

• The stock is trading at a 10–12% discount to ICICI Bank.

• CLSA believes it is an opportune time for investors to look past near-term noise.

• Margin performance has been stronger than market perception.

• Core PPOP is expected to grow at a high-teens CAGR.

• Risk-reward is viewed as extremely favourable at current valuations.

• Bernstein maintains an Underperform rating with a target price of Rs 750.

• The brokerage flags structurally higher credit costs.

• Pricing pressure is viewed as structural rather than cyclical.

• Scope for operating expense optimisation is seen as limited.

• Growth runway constraints are emerging.

• EPS growth is expected to slow to below 20% over the next few years.

• As growth expectations reset, Bernstein sees significant downside risk to the stock.

• Investec initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 820.

• The brokerage sees a structural shift underway at the company.

• R&D investments and execution have laid the foundation for a strong growth trajectory.

• Growth is backed by an ROI-led strategic approach across initiatives.

• The transformation toward a niche and specialty-led business is beginning to show results.

• Higher contribution from specialty generics, nasals and specialty branded products should further support growth.

• Investec forecasts EPS CAGR of 47% over FY25–28E, with sustained high returns of over 30%.

• The brokerage believes the long-term growth story remains strong.

UBS on Inflation

• UBS notes CPI inflation picked up marginally in December.

• Headline CPI at 1.3% YoY was below consensus expectations.

• The RBI is nearing the end of its easing cycle, with liquidity provision remaining key.

• Food prices declined sequentially in December.

• Core inflation picked up during the month.

BofA on Inflation

• BofA notes headline CPI at 1.33% YoY in December, materially below the RBI’s tolerance band.

• Lower food prices offset higher gold prices.

• Under the re-based CPI series, headline inflation stood at 2.3% for December.

• Food prices are expected to mean revert, while core inflation should move sideways in 2026.

• BofA expects a 25 bps rate cut in the February policy.

HSBC on Inflation

• HSBC highlights that India ended 2025 on a benign inflation note.

• Headline inflation has remained below the RBI’s lower bound of 2% for four consecutive months.

• Excluding gold, headline inflation was even lower at 0.4%.

• A new CPI series will be released next month and will not be fully comparable with the existing series.

• HSBC does not forecast further repo rate cuts, but sees room if growth disappoints.

• Morgan Stanley notes that gold was the best-performing asset class in 2025 and has significantly outperformed equities over the last five years.

• Indian equities appear better positioned heading into 2026, particularly relative to emerging markets.

• In early 2020, Morgan Stanley highlighted that an equal-weighted portfolio of gold and equities offered superior prospects.

• Over the past five years, such an equal-weighted portfolio has compounded at 17%, compared with 13% for equities and 21% for gold.

• Indian equities are expected to reverse their worst relative underperformance in three decades.

• Relative valuations versus emerging markets are now consistent with improved forward performance.

• Equities also appear inexpensive relative to short-term interest rates, a dynamic not seen for several years.

• India’s long-term investment case has been reinforced by a series of structural reforms.

• Morgan Stanley prefers domestic cyclicals over defensives and externally facing sectors.

• Overweight positions are maintained in Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials.

• Underweight stance continues on Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare.