Brokerages' Radar
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Brokerages remained constructive on select consumer, retail and hospitality names after their latest business updates, while maintaining a cautious stance on companies where valuations appear stretched despite strong growth prospects. Top picks include Titan Company Ltd., Urban Company Ltd., Dabur India Ltd., JSW Infrastructure Ltd., Shyam Metalics and Energy Ltd., PVR Inox Ltd.
Citi on Titan
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 5700
- Q2 Update: Studded Shines; Festive Shift And Gold Coin Sales Weigh On Growth
- Domestic jewellery (ex-bullion) grew 20% YoY, below Citi's 27% estimate; also gold prices were up 46%
- Estimate ex-coin growth at 24-25%, indicating resilient underlying momentum
- Buyer growth remained positive at mid-single digits, while average ticket size grew double digits
- Acceleration in studded jewellery to the early-30s, versus 20% growth in plain gold, is the key positive and should support margin expansion
MS on Titan
- Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 5483
- Q2: Weaker than expected India jewellery growth
- Overall growth was below expectations, note positives in better product mix, continued momentum on buyer growth
- Await clarity on the impact due to the festive shift
- Stay Overweight and believe any near-term correction would be a good entry opportunity
JPMorgan on Titan
- Maintain Overweight; Cut TP to Rs 5540 from Rs 5650
- Festive shift weighs on Jewellery growth
- Mix supports margins
- Expect the stock reaction to be negative post the Q2 revenue miss
- The next key share price catalyst will be the Q2 earnings release
- Management commentary on festive demand trends, initiatives to drive buyer growth amid elevated gold-price volatility, and the margin delivery and outlook will be key monitorables
Kotak Securities on Urban Company
- Downgrade to Sell from Add; Hike TP to Rs 155 from Rs 150
- Core business growing well; higher losses in Instahelp
- International steadily scaling; Native looking to diversify product base
- InstaHelp: Losses to stay high amid well-funded competition
- Stock is trading at rich 36x FY31 adjusted EBITDA, warranting a downgrade
GS on Shyam Metalics
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1120
- Strong Q2 operating performance
- Sep-26 records the highest monthly revenue thus far in
- Maharashtra MoU adds significant long-term growth optionality
Jefferies on Hotel Sector
- Wedding Calendar Tailwinds for Hotels
- Indian weddings are concentrated around auspicious dates
- FY28 will see 40% higher wedding dates at 95 vs typical 65-70, with a sharp uptick from Q4FY27-Q3FY28
- A richer wedding calendar should improve demand absorption, reduce events turned away & support hotel revenues
- Weddings drive premium room rates, banquets, F&B & broader asset utilisation
- Demand also remains structurally skewed toward domestic destinations, supporting structural tailwinds for hotels
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Nomura on Dabur
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 625
- Double-digit growth sustained
- Expect EBITDA margin to marginally moderate y-y,
- Business has started to show sequential improvement and has a soft/favourable base in the coming quarters
GS on Dabur
- Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 485
- Improved performance driven by India business
- Double-digit revenue and PAT growth in Q2
- Focus on new channels helped Dabur deliver growth
HSBC on JSW Infra
- Downgrade to Reduce from Hold; TP at Rs 310
- Rally leaves little room for execution risk
- Shares rallied, but capex-led growth could dilute ROIC and increase execution risk
- Resilient India cargoes offset Fujairah disruption but slower project ramp-up drives 4-7% cuts to FY27-29e EBITDA
- Growth is compelling but tied to JSW Steel's execution
- Prefer Adani Ports on superior ROIC and valuation
CLSA on PVR Inox
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 2135
- PVR Inox's growing footfalls; India sees release of 1500 movies a year
- Rising footfalls with growing theatrical releases
- Movies monetisation best via theatrical releases
- Screen expansions and tie-up with developers.
Bernstein on IEX
- Upgrade to Market-perform from Underperform; Cut TP to Rs 110 from Rs 115
- Coupling seems inevitable, but largely in the price
- Volumes - Medium term, more market based
- The biggest constraint for IEX volume growth is supply and not demand
- In current situation with strong power demand, weak hydro generation and coal shortage, IEX volume growth is expected to be soft over the next few months.
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JP Morgan on RBI Oct. 2026 Policy Meet
Expects 25 bps repo rate hike in Oct. policy meeting
- Expects hawkish tone while retaining neutral stance
- Inflation rebound sharper than expected due to elevated crude prices and El Niño risks
- Food inflation impacted by El Niño and Russia-Ukraine grain supply disruptions
- Does not expect RBI to “chase the Fed” despite narrower rate differentials
- 25 bps hike with hawkish guidance preferred over 50 bps hike
- 50 bps hike seen as an overreaction at current stage
- Prefers combination of OMO sales and sell-buy FX swaps for liquidity absorption
- 25 bps hike, OMO sales and FX swaps seen supporting rupee stability.
HSBC on RBI MPC meet - Oct 2026
- Expects 25 bps repo rate hike on Oct. 7 policy;
- Expects another 25 bps repo rate hike in Dec. 2026 Oil prices and stronger US dollar creating challenging external backdrop
- Growth is supported by improving export demand
- Sept. inflation seen rising to ~5.5% from 4.8% in Aug.
- Inflation expected to average just above 6% in Q4CY26
- Estimates Rs 6 trillion excess liquidity in banking system
- RBI likely to raise FY27 GDP growth forecast and inflation forecasts
- Change in policy stance remains a key focus
- 50 bps hike possible but not preferred due to risk of unsettling markets
Citi on RBI Oct. MPC
- Base case of 25 bps rate hike with neutral stance retained
- Assigns 60% probability to 25 bps hike with neutral stance
- Assigns 30% probability to 25 bps hike with stance shift to calibrated tightening
- Assigns 10% probability to 50 bps hike with calibrated tightening stance
- Expects early calibrated hikes to reduce need for steeper hikes later
- Expects cumulative 50-75 bps rate hikes in current cycle
- Sees 30-50 bps upside risk to RBI FY27 GDP growth forecast
- Sees 10 bps upside risk to RBI FY27 inflation forecast
- RBI could revise FY27 GDP forecast higher by 30-50 bps and inflation by 10 bps
- Additional OMO sales of Rs 1 lakh crore possible
HSBC on Kotak Mahindra Bank
- Upgrade to Buy from Hold; Hike TP to Rs 520 from Rs 430
- Ready for the next leg
- Turn constructive given the recent CEO appointment, and stronger loan and EPS growth outlook
- Raise EPS by 1-14% for FY27-29 on the back of stronger loan growth, steady NIM
- Repo hike presents an upside risk
Kotak Securities on Physicswallah
- Initiate Reduce with TP of Rs 125
- Leading test-prep provider with strong online and emerging offline businesses
- Test prep: solid near-term growth, medium term may see birth-rate headwinds
- Expect revenue/pre-IndAS EBITDA CAGRs of 26%/67% for FY2026-29
- Rich valuations and medium-term headwind from stagnating school going population
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