Rupee Closes Stronger Against Dollar For Third Session Amid Global Trade Uncertainties And Softening Inflation

The Indian rupee appreciated by nine paise at market close on Wednesday, with easing inflation, a sliding dollar index and lower oil prices lending support.

The local unit closed at 85.68 against the US dollar, extending its slip below the psychological level of 86 for the second session. The rupee had opened at 85.61.

"Exporters are expected to wait for appropriate levels to do further hedging, while importers can keep converting their payables in cash while waiting for 85/85.25 levels to hedge," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Due to recent economic data pointing to waning signs, India’s industrial production growth slowed to 2.9% in February—the weakest in six months—falling short of the 4% market estimate. This signals a loss in domestic economic momentum, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors.

The dollar moderately stabilised, while oil prices fell for a second day as traders monitored developments in the ongoing trade dispute and the potential for increased Iranian crude supply.

"Global oil demand is expected to grow at its slowest rate in 2025 as US production will also taper off due to the tariffs on trading partners. World oil demand is expected to rise by 730 k barrels per day, sharply down from last month's estimates of 1.03 million bpd. If the stock market rallied further, we could see some rally in oil beyond $65 a barrel," said Bhansali.

The June futures contract for Brent crude was trading 0.91% up at $65.26 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange as of 3:50 p.m. Lower crude prices bode well for the rupee, as India is a large importer.