Reliance Industries Shares In Focus: Jefferies Hikes Target Price; Sees Jio IPO As Major Catalyst In 2026

Jefferies has maintained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) and raised its target price to Rs 1,830 from Rs 1,785, rolling forward its valuation to March 2027. The brokerage believes the outlook for 2026 will be shaped by two key triggers, a tariff hike in telecom and the listing of Jio alongside a recovery in retail growth.

RIL outperformed the Nifty by 19% in calendar year 2025, driven by the restoration of double-digit consolidated Ebitda growth after a weak fiscal 2025. Jefferies in its not on Wednesday said that it expects this momentum to continue, projecting 13% consolidated Ebitda growth in fiscal 2027, with Jio contributing the bulk of incremental earnings.

Jefferies has also marginally lowered its fiscal 2027 and financial year 2028 EPS estimates by 2% each due to lower net interest income.

The brokerage sees a tariff hike and Jio’s listing by mid-calendar year 2026 as central catalysts, while retail is expected to return to mid-teens growth in financial year 2027.

After completing network streamlining, the retail business returned to area growth from the first quarter of this financial year. Store throughput has improved, with double-digit growth in revenue per square foot.

Jefferies forecasts a 16% year-on-year revenue increase for the retail segment in fiscal 2027. Margins, however, may see a mild dip due to a higher contribution from grocery and the continued scaling up of JioMart quick commerce.

Higher capital expenditure and working capital requirements could push free cash flow marginally negative and result in a slight increase in net debt. The proposed spin-off of the FMCG business is expected to sharpen management focus on execution.

Jefferies expects Jio to deliver 22% year-on-year revenue growth in thew next financial year, supported by tariff hikes in the mobile segment and sustained momentum in the home broadband business. Ebitda growth is projected at 28% year-on-year, aided by a 280-basis point margin expansion driven by operating leverage.

Free cash flow is likely to rise 65% year-on-year, reflecting higher margins and lower capex intensity. In 2026, investor attention is expected to centre on the timing and valuation of Jio Platforms’ listing, the magnitude of further tariff hikes and the scale-up of the fixed wireless access offering.

The oil-to-chemicals business is expected to post 5% year-on-year Ebitda growth in fiscal 2027, driven by firm refining margins and a marginal improvement in petrochemicals. Stable refinery utilisation and disruption in Russian refined product supplies are likely to support gross refining margins.

While global petrochemical overcapacity may persist, acceleration in announced capacity closures could allow a modest recovery from current 15-year-low margins.

The FMCG business has been growing at 100% year-on-year for six consecutive quarters, driven by aggressive distribution expansion, private label growth and the ramp-up of Campa Cola. With an annualised revenue run rate of about $ 2.4 billion as of the second quarter of this financial year, it is already larger than several listed peers excluding HUL and Nestlé. Jefferies sees scope for value discovery as disclosures improve over fiscal 2027-28. New energy and data centres add further optionality.