Oil Outlook Darkens As JPMorgan Warns Brent May Sink To $30 By 2027
Brent is likely to slip below $60 in 2026, fall into the low $50s by the final quarter.
JPMorgan has issued one of its bleakest oil forecasts yet, warning that Brent crude could tumble into the $30 range by 2027 as global supply expands far more quickly than demand.
The brokerage explained that despite steady consumption growth, deep market surpluses is likely to build over the next two years, driving prices sharply lower unless producers step in with significant output cuts.
According to the note on Tuesday, Brent is likely to slip below $60 in 2026, fall into the low $50s by the final quarter, and potentially end the year with a “$4 handle”.
The picture deteriorates in 2027 as oversupply deepens, with Brent expected to average $42, sliding toward $30 by year-end. WTI is projected to follow a similar path.
JPMorgan maintains its official forecasts at $58 Brent in 2026 and $57 in 2027, noting that significant intervention would be needed to prevent a deeper collapse.
Despite market pessimism, global oil demand remains stronger than expected. The brokerages sees consumption rising by 0.9 mbd in 2025 to reach 105.5 mbd, with similar gains in 2026 and an acceleration to 1.2 mbd in 2027 as lower prices stimulate usage.
However, supply is set to grow at three times the rate of demand in 2025 and 2026, leaving the market heavily oversupplied, the brokerage pointed. Non-OPEC+ producers, led by offshore megaprojects and steady shale output, account for around half of the supply gains.
Offshore projects in Brazil and Guyana are becoming a dominant force, adding between 0.4 and 0.9 mbd annually through 2027, it added. Nearly all future FPSO developments through 2029 have already been sanctioned, giving unusually strong visibility on future output.
At the same time, global shale, particularly the US and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, remains highly responsive to prices and continues to deliver flexible growth. Even with WTI in the mid-$50s, shale supply is projected to rise 0.4–0.5 mbd a year.
The supply surge has already pushed observable global inventories up by 1.5 mbd this year, with total surpluses expected to climb to 2.8 mbd in 2026 and 2.7 mbd in 2027. Without intervention, the market could remain deeply unbalanced. JPMorgan notes that price-inelastic segments, such as deep-water production, will continue expanding regardless of weak prices, while shale will begin cutting output only once WTI drops below $47. If prices slide beneath $35, US production losses could accelerate towards 0.9 mbd by late 2027.
JPMorgan in its note also outlined three possible paths. The first was renewed US sanctions enforcement on Russia and Iran. Notably, on each of the six occasions this year when sanctions were announced against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, WTI prices were trading in the low $60s or below.
The second view is that large voluntary production cuts will be needed to stabilise the market.
The brokerage's third path was no intervention. "Low oil prices will boost demand while also triggering an involuntary drop in supply, as oil prices below $50 will inevitably lead to production shut-ins across the non-OPEC producers as cash margins compress to zero," the brokerage added.
