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Oil Extends Slump As Traders Assess Outlook For Deal On Ukraine

Oil Extends Slump As Traders Assess Outlook For Deal On Ukraine
Crude has slumped this year, with futures on course for a fourth monthly loss in October, in what would be the longest losing streak since 2023. (Source: Bloomberg)

Oil dropped after posting the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that could increase crude flows into an already well-supplied market.

Brent fell toward $62 a barrel after dropping almost 3% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was below $58. After US-Ukrainian talks on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump's proposed Nov. 27 deadline for Ukraine's support could drift into the next week. Kyiv believed the plan “reflects their national interests,” according to a White House readout.

Crude has slumped this year, with futures on course for a fourth monthly loss in October, in what would be the longest losing streak since 2023. The decline has been driven by expanded global output, including from OPEC+, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record surplus for 2026. Traders are closely monitoring whether a deal on Ukraine will materialize, and if sanctions on Russia will be lifted — developments that could inject more supply.

“If we do reach an agreement here, and it's a very big if, the global glut gets a lot worse once sanctions are removed,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Bank Corp. “We see Brent capped above $65 — and see it headed lower into 2026 — though this week will all be about the ebb and flow of European, Ukrainian and US commentary on how the peace plan is evolving.”

Prices:

  • Brent for January settlement fell 0.5% to $62.23 a barrel at 8:23 a.m. in Singapore.

  • WTI for January delivery slid 0.6% to $57.73 a barrel.

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