Nifty's 2025 Scorecard: Analysts Get It Right For Third Straight Year — A First In Over A Decade

More Nifty stocks beat analyst price targets for a third straight year in 2025, marking the first such run in over a decade, even as the benchmark index delivered lower returns than several global peers.

Data comparing analyst 12-month consensus price targets as of Jan. 1, 2025, with market prices as of Dec. 29, 2025, shows that 29 Nifty stocks surpassed estimates, while 18 fell short, according to data compiled by NDTV Profit via Bloomberg. The analysis covers only companies tracked by at least 10 analysts,

This extends a trend that began in 2023. The last time analyst hits outnumbered misses for three consecutive years was between 2012 and 2014. The recent streak follows a sharp reversal from 2022, when only 10 stocks beat estimates and 38 missed them.

Despite the higher hit rate at the stock level, index returns remained muted. The NSE Nifty 50 rose about 9.7% in 2025, lagging gains in several global markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced about 27%, Japan’s Nikkei climbed around 26%, and China’s CSI 300 gained roughly 18%. In the US, the S&P 500 rose about 18% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased around 14%.

Market participants see the improving analyst hit rate as reflecting a shift in market conditions rather than broad-based price momentum.

“As we transition into 2026, the Indian market is moving from a period of sideways consolidation into a phase of earnings-led optimism,” Rahul Singh, chief investment officer for equities at Tata Asset Management told NDTV Profit over an email. He said Nifty valuations have normalised and corporate profit growth is expected to improve in 2026 from the single-digit growth seen in 2025, supported by policy measures that have lifted consumer sentiment.

Among the biggest hits in 2025, Eicher Motors emerged as a major outperformer. Shares rose on record earnings, strong Royal Enfield sales, favourable GST changes, and rising global demand.

Shriram Finance advanced after Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group announced on Dec. 19, 2025, that it would acquire a 20% stake in the company through a preferential allotment.

Maruti Suzuki shares gained on expectations of GST cuts for small cars, improved festive sales, higher exports, and a shift towards SUVs in its product mix.

Bajaj Finance also rose, supported by expectations of GST cuts on consumer durables, which were seen as positive for credit demand.

On the other side, Tata Motors’ passenger vehicle shares declined late in the year due to weak performance at its Jaguar Land Rover unit. A cyberattack disrupted production and affected earnings, while weak demand in China and Europe, higher US tariffs, and a sharp cut in margin guidance weighed on sentiment, despite strong domestic passenger vehicle sales.

Shares of Trent fell more than 40% after a 136% rise in 2024. Slower revenue growth and weaker demand led to the stock’s first annual decline in over a decade.

Tata Consultancy Services declined as investors raised concerns over the global demand outlook. Layoffs and restructuring added pressure, alongside regulatory risks, including the proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee, which also affected other large IT exporters.

NTPC shares fell amid prolonged monsoons, lower air conditioner usage, and subdued industrial production, which reduced power demand.