Nifty At All Time High: JPMorgan Projects 30,000 In Next 12-Months — Check Key Reasons
The upgrade is driven by improving macro conditions, supportive policy dynamics and a clearer earnings recovery.
JPMorgan has turned more optimistic on India’s market trajectory, raising its Nifty 50 base case target to 30,000 by the end of 2026.
The outlook is shaped by several events investors should monitor: developments in bilateral trade agreements with the US and EU, the festive season trajectory, the upcoming RBI and US Federal Reserve meetings, India’s FY26–27 Union Budget, a revamped methodology for economic indicators, and key state elections in 2026.
According to JPMorgan, Indian equities have faced a challenging year, weighed down by weak earnings, low beta performance and limited direct AI exposure. However, it expects this phase to reverse. With fiscal and monetary policy now aligned to bolster domestic demand, and as sectoral growth broadens out, corporate earnings are expected to rebound.
The report forecasts MSCI India earnings growth of 13% in calendar year 2026 and 14% in calendar year 2027. While valuations remain elevated, the premium over emerging markets has compressed to below the long-term average, reducing a structural deterrent for investors.
Valuation concerns, it argues, should not overshadow the structural story. India’s premium valuations are supported by strong fundamentals, resilient earnings and deep domestic liquidity. With the valuation gap to emerging markets now near 50%, below historical averages, the scope for a re-rating is growing.
US-India Trade Deal
A potential breakthrough in US–India trade negotiations is another key catalyst. JPMorgan believes that progress on tariff issues could trigger a near-term re-rating, supported by stronger diplomatic ties, a new 10-year defence framework and shifts in India’s energy sourcing strategy.
Such developments, paired with regulatory reforms aimed at easing compliance, boosting innovation and attracting investment, strengthen the case for India’s next leg of growth.
8th Pay Commission To Rate Cuts To Reshape Macro Environment
The firm highlights forces reshaping the macro environment: expected rate cuts, accelerating consumption driven by premiumisation, a rural recovery, social welfare measures and the upcoming 8th Pay Commission. Capital expenditure, once concentrated in infrastructure, is expanding into strategic sectors such as energy transition, semiconductors, data centres, electronics and defence, supported by targeted policy incentives and rising private participation.
Earnings Recovery
On the earnings front, JPMorgan notes that the downgrade cycle is largely over. As nominal GDP improves from 7.7% in financial year 2026 to an expected 9–9.5%, corporate revenues should benefit meaningfully. Indian companies have historically translated economic expansion into earnings growth, underpinning equity market performance. JPMorgan’s earnings forecasts for MSCI India remain slightly below consensus but signal a durable improvement.
What Are JPMorgan's Preference?
JPMorgan’s sector allocation reflects confidence in domestic-facing themes. Overweight sectors include Materials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Hospitals, Real Estate, Defence and Power.
Top picks span companies such as ICICI Bank, SBI, M&M, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Apollo Hospitals, DLF, BEL and HAL. The brokerage remains underweight IT and Pharma, citing better relative opportunities in domestic cyclicals and consumption plays.
