Trade Setup For Nov. 29: Nifty To Struggle Around 24,000 As Macro Data Keep Investors On Edge

The Nifty 50 has formed a long bearish candle, indicating further weakness from current levels, according to analysts, after Thursday's sharp sell-off in the benchmark due to global and domestic pressures.

The market texture appears weak, and a technical bounce is possible only if Nifty holds above 24,000 or the 20-day simple moving average, said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities Ltd.

If the Nifty falls below the 20-day SMA or 24,000, it is likely to retest levels around 23,850-23,750. However, if it holds above 24,000, a bounce back could push the index to 24,150-24,175, he said.

Option data suggests a broader trading range for the Nifty in between the 23,500 to 24,500 zones, with an immediate range between the 23,700 to 24,200 levels, according to Chandan Taparia, head of equity derivatives and technicals, wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Maximum call open interest is seen at the 24,500 then 25,000 strike, while maximum put open interest is at the 23,500 then 23,000 strike, the analyst said.

Investors remain cautious ahead of key data releases on Friday, including India's second quarter GDP numbers, China’s manufacturing PMI, and Eurozone CPI. Optimism could return if geopolitical concerns ease, though consolidation within a broader range is likely to continue, said Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management, MOFSL.

Overseas investors turned net sellers of Indian equities after three consecutive day of buying. Foreign portfolio investors net sold stocks worth Rs 11,756 crore, as per provisional data on the NSE.

Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors remained net buyers and bought shares worth Rs 8,718 crore.

The Nifty November futures were down by 1.2% to 24,144 at a premium of 230 points, with the open interest up by 68%.

The open interest distribution for the Nifty 50 December .5 expiry series indicated most activity at 26,000 call strikes, with the 23,500 put strikes having maximum open interest.

The NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex ended at the lowest level since Nov. 22 as Infosys Ltd. and HDFC Bank Ltd.'s share prices dragged. The Indian benchmarks also witnessed the steepest intraday fall in over the last three weeks.

The Nifty 50 ended 360.75 points, or 1.49%, down at 23,914.15, and the Sensex ended 1,190.34 points, or 1.48%, lower at 79,043.74.

• Mahindra & Mahindra: The company called a report stating that it is likely to face emission penalties of Rs 7,300 crore as factually incorrect. There is no such penalty has been levied or is being considered by the company, it clarified.

• Reliance Industries: The company’s arm entered into a stock purchase agreement with Wavetech Helium and subscribed to 21% stake of Wavetech Heliumand for an aggregate consideration of $12 million.

• Infosys: The NCLT ordered liquidation of arm Skava from Nov. 14.

• PC Jeweller: The company fixed Dec. 16 as record date for splitting each share into 10.

• IIFL Finance: Subsidiary IIFL Home Finance will raise Rs 100 crore through non-convertible debentures, and also includes an oversubscription option to retain up to Rs 400 crore.

• Fine Organics Industries: The company resumed Badlapur plant operations and is actively working on fully restoring all other plant activities to normalcy.

• Suraksha Diagnostic: The company will offer shares for bidding on Friday. The price band is set from Rs 420 to Rs 441 per share. The Rs 846.25-crore IPO is entirely an offer for sale. The company raised Rs 253 crore from anchor investors.

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region plunged in early trade on Friday as geopolitical tensions worsened with Russia's warning to strike Kyiv with new ballistic missiles, following its attack on the power system in Ukraine.

Equity benchmarks in South Korea fell the most by over 1% during the session's opening. The Nikkei was 255 points, or 0.67%, lower at 38,109, while the S&P ASX 200 was down 49 points, or 0.57%, at 8,451 as of 5:42 a.m.

Japan's inflation print rose higher than anticipated ahead of the Central Bank meeting next month.

The US markets were closed on Thursday on account of Thanksgiving. The S&P 500 index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.38% and 0.60%, respectively, on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.31%.

The crude oil prices inched higher amid speculations of OPEC+’s production plans after it delayed a key meeting by four days. The Brent crude was trading 0.62% higher at $73.28 a barrel as of 6:00 a.m. IST, and the West Texas Intermediate was up 0.15% at $68.82. 

• US Dollar Index at 106.04

• US 10-year bond yield at 4.25%.

• Brent crude up 0.62% at $73.28 per barrel.

• Bitcoin was up 0.71% at $95,808.19

• Gold spot was up 0.04% at $2,639.00

The Indian rupee weakened by 4 paise to close at 84.49 against the US dollar on Thursday after it hit a fresh low of 84.5038 during the day. It closed at 84.4525 a dollar on Wednesday, according to data on Bloomberg.

This decline in the currency reflects the ongoing fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

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