Trade Setup For Jan. 1: Nifty Struggles To Top Key Resistance As Bulls Warm Up For Volatile 2025

India's benchmark index, NSE Nifty 50, will begin a fresh year of trade, eyeing a break past the key 200-day moving average resistance for further upmove.

The index fell past the 200-DMA on Dec. 20 and has then failed to recover since then despite multiple attempts. Nifty's 23,870 mark will have to be broken to see a momentum switch to the positive side in the longer run.

Analysts warn global markets are expected to continue seeing heightened volatility in the first half of the calendar year 2025 under the new US administration under Donald Trump.

"Technically, Nifty on a daily scale has defended its trend line support and formed a bullish candle, indicating strength. On the upside, the 200-day simple moving average, or 200-DSMA, is placed near 23,870, which will act as a short-term resistance, while 23,500 will act as support," according to Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP technical and derivatives research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.

"In the immediate term, Nifty is expected to consolidate between 23,500 and 23,900, with a breakout on either side, further determining the direction of the market," Yedve said.

"A spinning top candlestick pattern appeared on the chart, suggesting indecisiveness but also raising the possibility of a positive divergence in the RSI, which could signal a change in momentum. In terms of technical levels, the immediate resistance is seen at 23,700, and a confirmation of trend reversal would see the next resistance level at 23,880. On the downside, 23,470 remains a key support level," according to Aditya Gaggar, director of Progressive Shares.

Bank Nifty closed on a slightly negative note at 50,860. Yedve noted that technically, the Bank Nifty index reversed from trendline support and defended its 200-DSMA, which is near 50,600. Furthermore, the index has formed a green candle on the daily chart, indicating strength.

"On the upside, 50-DEMA is placed near 51,915, which will act as resistance. In the short term, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 50,500–52,000 range, with a breakout in either direction determining its future direction," he said.

Overseas investors have been net sellers through 2024 and have collectively offloaded stocks worth Rs 1,933.9 crore so far this year. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors stayed net buyers through the year and bought stocks worth Rs 5.32 lakh crore, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange compiled by NDTV Profit.

The foreign portfolio investors offloaded stocks worth approximately Rs 4,645.20 crore on Tuesday and DIIs bought stocks worth Rs 4,546.70 crore, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange.

The NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex rose for nine years in a row, recording the best yearly winning streak since their inception despite sharp losses in the last three to four months of 2024. The Nifty 50 rose 8.80%, and the Sensex rose 8.17% in the calendar year 2024.

The Nifty 50 ended flat at 23,644.80, and the Sensex ended 0.14% or 109.12 points lower at 78,139.01. The Nifty 50 declined as much as 0.78% to the day's low of 23,460.45, and the Sensex fell 0.88% to the day's low of 77,560.79.

Trent Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. are the best performers in the Nifty 50 index. Trent rose 133.17%, and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. rose 73.86%.

• Jupiter Wagons: The company increased stake in arm Jupiter Electric Mobility to 75% from 60%.

• Piramal Enterprises: The company made an investment Rs 1,000 crore in arm Piramal Capital via subscribing to rights issue.

• Jagatjit Industries: HUL to discontinue malted milk food products agreement with the company. The company to continue supplying malt extract to HUL.

• ITC: The company’s entire shares held by the company in hotel units and JV to be transferred to ITC Hotels effective from Jan. 1.

• SJVN: The company signed MoU with the government of Bihar for the development of 1000 MW Hathidah Durgawati Pumped Storage Project and other PSPs in state of Bihar.

Most stock markets globally will remain shut on Wednesday on account of the New Year, with India being the exception among major countries.

The GIFT Nifty, an early indicator of the Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, was down 35, or 0.15%, at 23,734.5 as of 07:32 a.m.

Wall Street declined for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday in a year that otherwise saw over 20% rally in the benchmark index. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.43% and 0.90%, respectively, on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 0.07%.

The S&P 500 has gained 23% in 2024, rising for the fifth time in six years, in an advance that added $10 trillion to US equity values, according to Bloomberg. The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 16%. 

Meanwhile, gold capped off 2024 on a strong note with its best performance, notching 23% returns in the domestic markets. The yellow metal hit an all-time high of Rs 82,400 per 10 grams on Oct. 30 this year.

The dollar index — which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of 10 leading global currencies — advanced 0.77% to 108.48. The dollar saw its best year since 2015.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI, US jobless claims, construction spending, and manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday, giving a clearer picture of global industrial and labour market conditions.

On the final trading day of 2024, the Indian rupee closed weaker against the US Dollar. It weakened by seven paise to close at 85.61 against the US dollar on Tuesday.

The domestic currency opened weaker by 5 paise at 85.59, then it further declined by 9 paise from its previous close of 85.54. The day's movement reflects ongoing pressures as the rupee continues to navigate fluctuations in global dollar strength and local demand dynamics.