New Launches Slowdown In July-September: What It Means For Developers' FY26 Guidance

Housing sales in India's top nine cities fell by 4% and consecutive declined for the 10th quarter, July-September period at 1,00,370 units, according to a report by PropEquity. New launches too remained flat, coming in below the 1 lakh mark at 92,229 units declining by 10% on quarter-on-quarter basis.

The year-on-year decline in sales across the top nine cities during Q3 2025 was primarily led by the Maharashtra region - including Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, and Pune - which experienced a contraction ranging from 6% to 28%.

It is to be noted that in H1 2025 residential sales in India's top seven cities saw a 13% year-over-year decline in the first half of 2025.

The slowdown was linked to price escalation and increased construction costs, leading developers to slow new project launches despite continued price growth in markets like NCR and Bengaluru.

Investors too continue to remain cautious on the index with Nifty Realty seeing a 0.8% decline in 1 month and 15% downtick in last one year in comparison with Nifty50 being up 0.7% in one month and 0.4% downtick in last one year.

Morgan Stanley Expectations for Q2FY26

According to a Morgan Stanley research note on the real estate sector, Q2 performance is projected to be resilient despite typical seasonal weakness.

The top five real estate developers are expected to record Q2 pre-sales of Rs 11,000 crore, a 44% year-over-year increase. This first-half performance reaches 55% of the full-year 2026 estimate.

Morgan Stanley expects Godrej and DLF will outperform consensus pre-sales expectations, while Lodha and Oberoi could disappoint.

Key Developers Guidance for FY26

Lodha Developers

• Co remains on track to achieve FY26 presales guidance of Rs 21,000 crore

• Added five new projects with GDV of Rs 22,700 crore

• Achieves 90% of FY26 guidance of 25,000 crore

• Expects collections to be stronger in H2FY25

Godrej Properties

• Sales bookings guidance of Rs 32,500 crore

• Planned launches : Rs 40,000 crore of inventory

• Collections guidance of Rs 21,000 crore

• Business Development guidance of Rs 20,000 crore

Ajmera Realty FY26 Sales Guidance

• Pre-sales expected to rise 48% at Rs 1,600 crore vs 1,080 crore

• Project additions expected to rise 49% at Rs Rs 3,750 crore vs Rs 2,510 crore

• Debt/Equity to rise at 0.85x vs 0.55x