CONCOR To Blue Dart—Logistics Stocks Deliver Negative One-Year Returns: Is There A Silver Lining?
Logistic players are battling with multiple challenges. Companies are losing market share and profits are being squeezed by pressure on margins, as the overall volume of goods slowing down.
The logistics sector is currently navigating a difficult period, marked by a significant decline in stock values over the past year. This downturn has raised questions about the industry's near-term outlook. Here's a look at the share price trend of major logistic stocks, factors impacting the industry, and whether the companies are poised for a turnaround.
Deep Dive into Market Headwinds
A closer look shows the industry is battling multiple challenges. On one hand, major players are losing market share, on the other, profits are being squeezed by pressure on margins and yields, as the overall volume of goods is also slowing down. These domestic issues have been compounded by global challenges, creating headwinds for the sector.
A Look at Numbers: A Bumpy Ride
The tough landscape is clearly reflected in the one-year stock performance of leading logistics companies, with many delivering substantial negative returns.
Strategic Responses for Recovery
Companies are signalling a potential turnaround, outlining clear strategic goals and targets that could put them back on a growth trajectory in the coming years. For instance, CONCOR has guided for 13% volume growth in the same period.
Blue Dart is focused on achieving significant earnings and revenue growth, and Gateway Distriparks is targeting double-digit volume growth. TVS Supply Chain is looking to significantly improve its Before Tax Profit margin, targeting 4% by Q4 FY27 compared to 0.5% in Q4 FY25.
Allcargo Gati has set a target of 8-10% volume growth. Allcargo Logistics is prioritising gaining market share through digital initiatives. VRL Logistics, on the other hand, expects a flat volume in FY26, with growth resuming in FY27.
Key Investor Moves
For some companies, strategic moves and key investor interest provide additional context. TCI Express, which saw a buyback at Rs 2,050/share in 2022, is currently 63% down from that price, and is aiming for 11-13% revenue growth in FY26.
Gateway Distriparks' subsidiary, Snowman Logistics, also saw an increase in promoter holding from 45% in March 2024 to 50% in March 2025. Meanwhile, ace investor Mukul Agarwal continues to hold a 4.76% stake in Allcargo Gati.
Analysts' View of India's Logistics Sector
Despite the recent lacklustre performance and challenges, the long-term outlook for the logistics sector remains a point of considerable discussion among market analysts. Their ratings and return potential forecasts paint a picture of cautious optimism, suggesting that while the immediate future appears volatile, there is significant room for growth and recovery. Analysts have provided a range of 'Buy Ratings' and impressive 'Return Potential' percentages, indicating they see value in the sector.
