Israel-Iran Conflict: Indian Market May Stabilise Soon But With No Big Rallies Yet, Says Samir Arora

Samir Arora, founder and fund manager at Helios Capital, has urged investors not to panic amid rising geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.

Drawing from past market responses to global crises, any immediate volatility is likely to be short-lived unless the situation escalates significantly, especially involving direct US participation, Arora said.

“There is no point in panicking over the next few days,” he told NDTV Profit, adding that markets have historically brushed off similar episodes with limited impact beyond the initial reaction.

On Indian equities, Arora expects the market to stabilise soon, noting that the recent weakness has been driven more by foreign fund flows than domestic fundamentals. However, he ruled out the possibility of a sharp rally. “This is not going to be a one-way market. We need periods of consolidation.”

While a 20% surge purely on flows is unrealistic, a 10% return over the next 9–12 months would be a “great outcome” if supported by a broader earnings recovery in sectors like consumer and IT, rather than just financials, according to Arora.

He remains positive on the long-term prospects, advocating a disciplined, patient approach to investing. Speaking on personal finance strategy, Arora stressed the importance of investing in one’s education and career. For younger investors, he recommended a long-term SIP strategy over chasing quick gains.

Interestingly, Arora pointed out that a slower start in SIPs may be more beneficial over time. If the market goes up a lot early and you’ve only invested small amounts like Rs 10,000 per month the compounding benefit is lost on the larger corpus that would come later, he explained. From this perspective, markets that rise gradually can serve long-term investors better.

For those who began investing two decades ago, the current environment is an opportunity to begin drawing down without guilt, he said. “If you can stick to an SIP for 30 years, you’ve already won,” he said, underlining the value of consistency.

Arora also highlighted significant outflows from US equity markets, although inflows into ETFs suggest a shift in allocation rather than a withdrawal from risk assets.

Meanwhile, rising gold demand is being fuelled by anti-dollar sentiment and continued outperformance, which has led to its growing weight in portfolios.