India's long-standing love for gold remains as deep-rooted as ever. Despite a year marked by economic shifts and policy turbulence, gold has delivered a remarkable upside move, reflecting renewed investor confidence in physical assets.
Peter McGuire, CEO of Trading.com in Australia, highlighted that while silver faced a recent selloff—mainly in the paper markets—physical demand remains robust. “Gold has hit a record high of $3,167.57, and the next key resistance lies at $3,200. If that level is breached, we could see a significant push to the upside,” he told NDTV Profit, adding that gold's best days may still lie ahead.
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While the pace of performance seen recently might not repeat over the next eight months, McGuire believes there's still room for gold to climb higher. The broader second quarter outlook remains dynamic across equities, commodities, currencies, and bond markets.
US President Donald Trump's assertion that the US dollar will remain the world's top currency comes at a time when the dollar index has fallen to 101. Recent sessions have seen sharp selloffs, and further downside can't be ruled out. Bond yields at 4% are under pressure, raising the possibility of a downward leg—potentially easing inflation and influencing upcoming Fed policy decisions.
Markets are also parsing Trump's comments and their implications. Equities are down, silver has dipped, crude oil has fallen sharply by 7% in April, and the dollar is under pressure. Many currencies have gained, and traders are now watching how policy will adjust in response to these moves.
OPEC's decision to increase production comes as no surprise amid falling crude prices. If crude settles around $60, it could ease inflation pressures and support consumer sentiment. However, any further production increase will have broader strategic implications, especially amid tariff risks and slowing global consumption.
“I'm concerned about a potential U.S. recession,” McGuire noted, adding that upcoming payroll data will be critical.
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