Global Stocks Notch Small Gains Ahead Of CPI Report: Markets Wrap

Global stocks posted small gains as traders held back on major bets before Thursday’s highly anticipated US inflation data, seen as key to shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path this year.

Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.1% after back-to-back all-time highs. European stocks advanced 0.2%, led by construction and telecom shares. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index was little changed after five days of gains. Treasuries held steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.05%. The dollar firmed.

Expectations that the Fed will resume monetary easing this month have soared in recent weeks, as data increasingly point to a US labor market under strain. Wednesday’s surprise decline in producer inflation further bolstered the view that tariffs are not placing excessive pressure on prices.

Core CPI, a measure of underlying inflation excluding food and fuel, likely rose 0.3% for a second month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Money markets are currently betting on as many as three quarter-point cuts by December, with some wagers pointing to a jumbo 50-basis-point reduction when the Fed meets next week.

A softer-than-expected print could fuel bets on an initial outsized cut, while a stronger reading would bolster the case for more gradual moves.

“Even if we do have a bit of a bump in CPI, there is a theory that it can be short-term, driven by tariffs,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank. “As long as it is not such a big increase, I don’t think you’ll see a very big negative reaction on the market.”

Policymakers at the European Central Bank are expected to keep rates unchanged later on Thursday, with analysts seeing no further cuts this cycle. Economists expect fresh quarterly projections to temper fears about inflation being lodged below 2%.

In commodity markets, Brent crude slipped toward $67.30 a barrel on forecasts for a record surplus next year. While the International Energy Agency raised projections slightly for global oil demand through 2026, it lifted supply estimates even more.

Meanwhile, Mexico is weighing tariffs of as much as 50% on cars, auto parts, steel and textiles from China and other countries with which it doesn’t have trade agreements. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to talk and resume trade negotiations, signaling a possible thaw after weeks of a blistering fight over tariffs and Russian oil purchases. 

• Billionaire Gautam Adani’s efforts to get US fraud charges against him resolved have stalled, according to people familiar with the matter, prolonging the regulatory overhang that has hobbled the Adani Group’s global expansion plans.

• Tricolor Holdings, a used car seller and subprime lender that focuses on undocumented immigrants in the US Southwest, filed to liquidate in bankruptcy. US prosecutors are also looking into allegations of fraud.

• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is leading a fundraising spree among Chinese tech giants, driven by soaring capital demands amid intensifying competition in artificial intelligence.

• SMG Swiss Marketplace Group’s shareholders are looking to raise as much as 903 million Swiss francs ($1.1 billion) in an initial public offering, which would mark one of Europe’s largest so far this year.

• Swedish financial services group NOBA Bank Group AB announced plans to launch an initial public offering in Stockholm, bringing new momentum to Europe’s busiest exchange for first-time share sales this year.

• Buyout firm GTCR is nearing a deal to buy generic drugmaker Zentiva in a deal that could be valued at about $4.8 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Iberdrola SA agreed to buy an additional 30% stake in Brazilian power distributor Neoenergia SA for about 12 billion reais ($2.2 billion) as it looks to increase investments in electricity networks.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 10 a.m. London time

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%

• Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%

• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed

• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%

• The euro was little changed at $1.1693

• The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 147.85 per dollar

• The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1222 per dollar

• The British pound was little changed at $1.3516

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $114,082.51

• Ether rose 2.4% to $4,432.84

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.05%

• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.66%

• Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%

Commodities

• Brent crude fell 0.5% to $67.15 a barrel

• Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,624.91 an ounce