Fundamentals Take Centre Stage, Flow-Driven Rally Behind Us: Dinshaw Irani

After a run fuelled by liquidity and sentiment, markets are shifting gears, believes Dinshaw Irani. "From here on, it's going to be pure fundamentals," the chief executive officer of Helios Capital India told NDTV Profit, highlighting that the ceasefire and a US-China trade deal were the biggest positives for the market on Monday.

"Till now it was a game of flows in India — retail buying, institutional buying, FII buying," he said. "Here on, rationality has to prevail in valuations and earnings growth."

Irani pointed out that the current final quarter earnings season has been underwhelming. "60% of companies that have reported their results have seen analyst downgrades," he noted.

On the consumption front, he struck a cautiously optimistic tone. "Rural consumption is picking up, and the monsoon is expected to help. Urban consumption is lagging — wherever it's moved up is only because of deals."

Irani, however, finds comfort in the financial sector. "Fairly good, given the RBI's inclination to infuse liquidity into the system and cut down rates," he said.

As for stock picking, he advises a selective approach. "I would rather look at pockets. Be specific in picking stocks, and go for fairly resilient sectors."

He remains very bullish on the banking and financial sectors. Non-banking financial sectors are also gainers in the lending space, he noted. He is also gung-ho on asset managers and mortgage companies.

While tourism may have taken a hit due to geopolitical conflict, Irani remains bullish on the sector. In healthcare, it's hospitals over pharma. "I would rather stay away from the pharma sector because not even Trump knows what he's trying to say," he said, referring to the ambiguity surrounding US policy on drug pricing amid tariff volatility.

Irani further flagged trade policy as a concern. "A 10% tariff deal with China and a 10% deal with India is a negative for India. We thought China would have a higher allocation."

The United States and China had recently agreed to suspend tariffs on some of each other’s goods for 90 days following talks in Geneva. The suspension applies to certain tariffs previously imposed in April 2025 and will take effect by May 14.

The agreement lowered the total tariff rate on targeted goods from 145% to 30%. Both countries will retain a 10% ad valorem rate while suspending 24 percentage points of their additional tariffs.