'Foreigners Seem Smarter Today': Uday Kotak On Rupee's 90 Level Breach Amid Foreign Outflows

Billionaire Banker Uday Kotak weighed in on the currency breaching Rs 90 to the dollar on Wednesday, pointing to foreign selling as the immediate trigger.

He said the proximate reason for the move was “foreign selling of Indian stocks both FPI & PE under FDI,” even as Indian investors continued buying. “Time will tell who is smarter. For now foreigners seem smarter,” he wrote in a post on social media platform X.

Kotak noted that the one-year Nifty dollar return is 0, underscoring why global investors may be pulling back. Still, he framed the moment as part of a much longer cycle. “This is a long game,” he said, adding that it was “time for Indian business to shake out of comfort zone.”

Traders say the rupee's decline has been driven by a mix of policy intent and market forces. According to market participants, the government and the RBI appear inclined to support exporters, keeping the dollar well bid in recent days. State-owned banks were seen consistently buying dollars at higher levels on Tuesday, signalling that intent. A deal was even executed at 90.0050 after market hours on the trading platform.

Stalled India–US trade talks and heavy FPI outflows are adding further pressure, even as the dollar index struggles to hold above 100. If RBI support eases around the 90 level, analysts warn the pair could test 91 in the current cycle.

Amit Pabari of CR Forex Advisors had earlier noted that the RBI’s shift has been visible. After weeks of defending the 88.80 level, the central bank quietly stepped back on 21 November, allowing the market to break through. “Once 88.80 was allowed to break, it became clear the RBI is no longer blocking every move — instead guiding the rupee through a controlled, gradual depreciation and stepping in only to prevent sharp swings,” he said.