Festive Glitter Lifts Jewellery Sales, But Margins May Stay Dull: JPMorgan

A late surge in demand after Navratri set the stage for a sparkling festive quarter for India’s jewellery retailers. In a new note, JPMorgan highlights how leading players saw an acceleration in growth through the peak festive season — with Titan and Kalyan Jewellers even sustaining positive momentum after the celebrations ended.

With a strong wedding calendar lined up for the current quarter, JPMorgan's Latika Chopra notes that the broader demand outlook “remains optimistic”, though she flags gold-price volatility as a key monitorable. Competition, too, is heating up, with aggressive expansion, exchange schemes and promotions likely to cap margin gains even as revenue rises.

Retailers are leaning into lightweight jewellery and lower-karat offerings to offset elevated gold prices and cater to younger consumers seeking simpler designs, says JPMorgan.

Store additions were slower than expected in H1, but Chopra notes companies remain confident of meeting FY26 targets.

Competitive intensity is firm across national and regional players. Titan is countering discounting with powerful exchange programs and lower making charges, while Kalyan plans to launch a regional brand/format in Q4 with localised designs to expand its addressable market.

Despite strong demand, JPMorgan notes that margins may not follow suit. High salience of gold coins and elevated promotional spends could limit expansion.

• Titan: Jewellery EBIT margin expected to stay within 11–11.5%; Ebit growth to lag revenue

• Kalyan: Expects better H2 margins due to cost initiatives, though a higher franchise mix may drag

Store additions were slower than expected in H1, but Chopra notes companies remain confident of meeting FY26 targets.

• Titan: 35–40 new Tanishq stores, as well as 70–80 revamped stores

• Kalyan: 90 Kalyan stores, and 80 Candere stores (largely franchise route)

• Bluestone: Added 19 stores in Q2, bringing H1 additions to 36 (total 311 stores)