DMart Share Price Target Implies 63% Upside Ahead Of Q3 Results — Key Factors

DMart's low-cost operator model remains robust and concerns of competition due to quick commerce are overdone, according to CLSA analyst Aditya Soman.

The 12-month share price target for Avenue Supermarts Ltd. has been cut to Rs 6,105 from Rs 6,300 earlier. The new target still implies a 63% upside over Friday's close of Rs 3,745.10 on the NSE. The stock has been rated 'High-Conviction Outperform' by the analyst.

The target price change comes ahead of the third-quarter financial results due on Saturday, Jan. 10.

Soman said DMart is rapidly scaling its private‑label assortment, which will drive the next level of share gains. Operating with low costs allows it to offer competitive prices to consumers leading to high sales velocity and better scale. This further reducing costs and creates a virtuous loop that allows DMart to gain market share in a price‑sensitive market, he said in a note.

"While we expect the stock price to remain under pressure given slower sales growth, we maintain our core thesis on DMart, that it is the lowest-cost operator, which is further widening the gap with competitors while aggressively moving towards private labels," the note said.

"Additionally, the DMart model is now being rapidly expanded to smaller towns. While the near‑term implications of these shifts are admittedly hard to forecast, we believe the model remains robust and that concerns of competition due to quick commerce (on which we remain bullish) are overdone," it added.

The analyst trimmed the FY26–28 earnings per share forecast by 1–3% to reflect slower sales growth, warranting a cut in target price.

Standalone revenue from operations for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025 rose 13% year-on-year to Rs 17,613 crore. The total number of stores stood at 442.

DMart share price is flat on a 12 month basis and nearly 24% lower from its 52-week high of Rs 4,949.50 hit in September last year.