Can Nifty Cross 26,000 Before Year-End? THIS Level Could Decide The Next Big Move

The benchmark Nifty 50 index opened Wednesday’s session on a buoyant note, supported by positive global cues, easing crude oil prices, and the IMF’s upward revision of India’s FY25 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.4%. As the session progressed, the index gathered momentum and extended its gains, closing 178 points higher, or 0.71%, above the 25,300 mark. Barring Nifty Media, which slipped 0.52%, all major sectoral indices ended in the green. Meanwhile, India VIX — the market’s volatility gauge — fell over 5%, reflecting a clear risk-on sentiment among investors.

On the daily chart, Nifty formed a sizable bullish candle featuring a higher high and a higher low compared to the previous session. This move negated the earlier bearish implication of a bearish engulfing-like formation, as the index not only reversed the prior session’s decline but also managed to surpass the high of the Friday, Oct. 10 session on an intraday basis. Technically, the index now stands on the verge of a breakout above a cluster of resistances, represented by the downward-sloping trendline of a symmetrical triangle and the previous swing high recorded on Sept. 18, 2025. The immediate resistance zone lies between 25,400 and 25,450. A decisive close above this range, accompanied by strong volumes and broad-based participation, could trigger a fresh leg higher, with a potential medium-term target near 26,267, as indicated in Monday’s analysis.

Notably, the upper Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe is beginning to turn upward, while the lower band remains flat, suggesting a mild expansion phase — typically an early signal of trend resumption. If the Nifty continues to close higher in the coming sessions, the bands are likely to widen further, confirming a trend expansion phase. Since prices have been sustained above the 20-SMA (the middle band) and are now heading toward the upper band, the setup points to a bullish bias.

Momentum indicators further strengthen this view. The 14-period daily RSI has re-entered the bullish zone, and the MACD histogram also improved on Wednesday.

In summary, the Nifty 50 is approaching a critical resistance cluster. A sustained breakout above 25,450, supported by volume expansion, could open the gates for higher targets in the short to medium term. On the downside, immediate support lies at 25,220, while the 20-DMA near 25,071 will act as a crucial level to watch. A breach below this moving average may signal the end of the ongoing upswing.

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