- Bernstein initiated Outperform ratings on Eternal and Swiggy with target prices of Rs 390 and Rs 570
- Top 5% Indian consumers, about 70 million, will create an $80 billion market by FY2030, says Bernstein
- Quick commerce market may reach $35 billion by FY2030, led by demand from urban centres
Bernstein on Tuesday initiated coverage on Eternal and Swiggy with Outperform ratings, assigning target prices of Rs 390 and Rs 570 respectively.
The brokerage believes both companies are well positioned to replicate their food delivery success in India's rapidly growing quick commerce sector and generate strong investor value despite an increasingly competitive landscape.
Bernstein in its report highlighted that India's top 5% of consumers, around 70 million people with an estimated GDP per capita of $20,000, will represent an $80 billion addressable market by financial year 2030. This affluent group values convenience and quality, and is willing to pay for premium experiences.
Sustainable business models, the report argues, will rely on consolidating transaction frequency across multiple use cases and increasing share of wallet through innovation in areas such as dining out, events, and entertainment ticketing, beyond the existing quick commerce and food delivery segments.
Bernstein estimates the quick commerce market could reach $35 billion by fiscal 2030, driven by rising demand from dense urban centres. The brokerage believes that while the sector will remain intensely competitive, it is unlikely to follow a winner-takes-all pattern.
Quick commerce benefits from scale effects rather than network effects, meaning profitability is more evenly distributed than in food delivery. Bernstein expects Blinkit, Instamart, and Zepto to remain the top three players and achieve profitability despite competition.
Food delivery remains the “cash machine” for both companies, although growth has slowed to below 20% as the channel shift from offline to online has largely completed. The sector already accounts for 30–50% of organised food services.
Future growth of around 16–18% in net order value will depend on innovation such as faster delivery, healthier options, and lower average order values. The report also warns that the genericisation of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, expected in mid-2026, could temporarily dampen demand.
Bernstein adds that adjacent opportunities such as B2B logistics, food distribution, and “Going Out” categories are key to capturing a greater share of consumer spending.
Both Eternal and Swiggy have strong user bases, with 20–25 million unique daily active users, as well as sufficient cash to defend their positions. Among the two, Swiggy's Instamart is viewed as having a superior risk–reward profile, with potential for re-rating as profitability improves. Swiggy remains Bernstein's top pick in India's evolving e-commerce market.
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