Adani Green Energy's Growth Capex Remains On Track, Says Cantor — Details Inside
The brokerage believes management’s FY2026 outlook remains strong, with approximately 5 GW of additions on schedule.
Cantor has assumed coverage on Adani Green Energy Ltd., maintaining an 'Overweight' rating, while updating estimates and setting a new target price of Rs 1,139 from Rs 1,155, which indicates a 16% upside.
The brokerage believes management’s FY2026 outlook remains strong, with approximately 5 GW of additions on schedule.
"F2Q26 will benefit from wind seasonality and evacuation (getting electricity out of a plant into the grid through the available transmission corridor), and solar CUF is guided to be around 28%, with upside potential as Khavda scales," the brokerage noted.
It further added that near-term potential catalysts include wind merchant price realisations throughout the season, transmission milestones at Khavda, additional commercial and industrial offtakes (including data centres), and progress on refinancing.
"Due to demand from data centres and artificial intelligence (AI), merchant offtake is a key focus, meaning power sold outside fixed-tariff power purchase agreements in spot or bilateral markets. Merchant accounts for 17% of AGEL’s current contract portfolio, with a management goal to reach 25% by 2030," the brokerage noted.
Noting that the renewable energy sector remains favourable, the brokerage said that in July 2025, India surpassed 50% non-fossil fuel capacity in its power mix, ahead of its 2030 goal.
It further added that in F1Q26 AGEL’s energy sales rose 42% year-over-year to 10,479 million units, with revenue from power supply increasing 31%. Ebitda from power supply also grew 31%, maintaining an industry-leading margin of 92.8%. "Execution remained the primary driver. AGEL commissioned 1.6 GW during the quarter, bringing total operating capacity to 15.8 GW. Khavda continues to expand, with about 5.6 GW now operational across solar, wind, and hybrid projects," Cantor said.
Portfolio CUFs average around 28.0% for solar, 42.3% for wind, and 43.9% for hybrid, supported by roughly 99% plant availability in solar and the mid-90s in wind, the brokerage noted.
