With voting concluded in West Bengal's 294-seat Assembly, exit polls painted a clear picture on Wednesday, with most giving the BJP a lead over Mamata Banerjee's ruling Trinamool Congress.
If the numbers hold, Bengal may be on the cusp of its first change of guard in 16 years. And with it, the question that nobody in the BJP is answering just yet: who sits in the chief minister's chair?
The Exit Poll Picture
Four of five pollsters give the BJP+ a lead, though the margins vary considerably across agencies.
- Praja Poll projects BJP+ at 178–208 seats against TMC+'s 85–110 — the most aggressive projection in BJP's favour.
- P-Marq puts BJP+ at 150–175 against TMC+'s 118–138.
- Matrize projects BJP+ at 146–161 against TMC+'s 125–140.
- Poll Diary gives BJP+ 142–171 against TMC+'s 99–127.
- Peoples Pulse, however, tells a different story entirely — projecting TMC+ retaining power with 177–187 seats, pushing BJP+ to just 95–110.
The wide variance between agencies — with BJP+ projections ranging anywhere from 95 to 208 — reflects genuine uncertainty on the ground. The magic majority mark in the 294-seat house is 148.
Meanwhile, the NDTV-Axis My India exit poll is expected Thursday, with the greater accuracy given that voting in parts of the state concluded only Wednesday.
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Suvendu Adhikari: The Name BJP Counting On
Should the BJP cross the majority mark, Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari is widely discussed as a frontrunner for chief minister.
He remains the party's most prominent face in the state. In this election, Adhikari is contesting from both Nandigram and Bhabanipur, where he faces Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee directly. In 2021, he defeated Banerjee in Nandigram by 1,956 votes — a result that remains contested, with Banerjee having filed an election petition in the Calcutta High Court.
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In 2021, TMC won 215 seats and BJP 77. Congress and CPI(M) drew a blank.
Exit polls have a mixed track record in Bengal — in 2021, most underestimated TMC's eventual tally significantly.
These are exit poll projections and not election results. Actual results may vary.
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