Kashmir's famed autumn has arrived with an unexpected twist. Instead of the crisp chill usually associated with October, the Valley has been experiencing an extraordinary spell of warmth, with several weather stations recording their highest or near-highest October temperatures.
Autumn is one of Kashmir's most popular tourism seasons, known for its golden chinar foliage, crisp mornings, clear skies and pleasant temperatures.
Tourists flock to the Valley to witness the changing colours, enjoy scenic drives and photography, and explore its gardens, lakes and countryside before winter sets in.
However, instead of the usual autumn chill, Srinagar experienced an exceptional spell of heat on Sunday, October 4, with the mercury soaring to 31.2°C—the second-highest temperature ever recorded in the city during October.
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The reading was 5.7 degrees above normal and surpassed the previous October high of 31.1 degrees recorded in 2008.
Srinagar's all-time October record remains 33.9 degrees Celsius, set in 1931.The heat was even more pronounced elsewhere. Qazigund touched 31.4 degrees Celsius, breaking its previous October record of 31.2 degrees set in 1985.
Kokernag recorded 29.4 degrees, also a new October record, beating the previous high of 29.2 degrees set in 2008.
At world famous tourist resort, Gulmarg, the mercury climbed to 23.2 degrees Celsius, making it the resort's second-highest October reading on record.
The Meteorological Centre has forecast a change in weather from October 6, with rain and thunderstorms possible and snowfall likely over some higher reaches later in the week.
But the unusual warmth also comes as the broader climate system is being influenced by a strengthening El Niño.
The India Meteorological Department has said El Niño conditions, which intensified during the monsoon, are expected to strengthen further during October-December.
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The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 12.6% below the long-period average, making it one of India's driest monsoons in more than a decade.
That does not mean El Niño alone explains Kashmir's October heat. Local weather patterns, dry conditions, clear skies and atmospheric circulation also play a role.
But the combination of a deficient monsoon, persistent dryness and a warming climate provides a broader backdrop to an unusually hot autumn.
The timing is particularly significant for Kashmir's tourism economy.
With Dussehra and Diwali holidays approaching, many travellers are planning Kashmir trips expecting cool autumn conditions.
Instead, visitors are finding temperatures more reminiscent of late summer. While the forthcoming weather change could bring relief, the episode has added an unusual dimension to Kashmir's peak autumn tourism season.
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