US Set To Face Recession, Trump Won't Win If There's Global Trade War: Jim Rogers

The United States is set to face a recession in the near future, veteran investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday, as he fiercely criticised President Donald Trump for pushing the world towards a global trade war.

Rogers' remarks came a day after Trump, as part of his 'Liberation Day' announcements, imposed a minimum 10% tariff on America's trading partners. The levies are higher on countries like China and India, whose products would be charged at 34% and 27% respectively.

"I am sure of recession in the US. We haven't had a problem since 2009. A problem is overdue and it is coming," Rogers said in an interaction with NDTV Profit.

The challenge for the US economy is aggravated by the actions of Trump, Rogers suggested, adding that the president had "no idea what he wants".

"I know trade war is bad. It isn't good for the world. Trump thinks if there is a trade war, he will win. But he will not," said the 82-year-old, who is also co-founder of Quantum Fund.

On being asked whether other countries should mull over retaliatory tariffs against the US, Rogers said such moves would lead to more headwinds.

"Retaliatory tariffs cannot work. If India or any other country responds (with retaliatory duties), then the issue would only escalate. If people know trade wars, they would know that when countries raise tariffs it ends up ending badly. People escalate and then everybody ends up regretting it," he said.

In the backdrop of tariffs, investors across the world will face a tough time ahead, according to Rogers. "I expect we are going to have very bad times in world investor markets... Perhaps the worst in my lifetime. This is because the debt is so unbelievably high everywhere, especially in the US," he said.

Despite the gloomy projection, the veteran investor sounded bullish on India and lauded the country's strong equity market. "I have sold my equities in every country in the world, except for China and Uzbekistan. But I would like to own India for the first time in my life," he said.

Rogers said he is keen on India because the country "seems to understand how the world is supposed to work". India's stock market has also "been very strong", he added.

The US stock market has declined significantly since over the past couple of months. Since the onset of the Trump presidency, the broader index S&P 500 has shed over 6.5%.

India's benchmark equity indices also faced the brunt of global headwinds in the first couple of months of 2025. The NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex fell more than 15% from their September peak, but logged a significant recovery last month.