US Inflation Expectations, Job Perceptions Worsen In Fed Survey
The numbers highlight the divide between Fed officials who are more concerned about inflation and those who see rising unemployment as the greater risk.
US inflation expectations rose in December while perceptions of job availability were the worst in at least 12.5 years, according to a monthly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Consumers saw prices rising 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November, according to a report released Thursday. The probability consumers assigned to finding a job if they lost theirs fell to 43.1% — the lowest in the history of the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which dates to mid-2013.
The numbers highlight the divide between Fed officials who are more concerned about inflation and those who see rising unemployment as the greater risk. That gap is likely to keep the US central bank from adjusting interest rates at its next policy meeting later this month.
The survey results come ahead of monthly employment figures due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and data on consumer prices due Jan. 13.
The New York Fed survey showed consumers put the probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months at 15.3%, the highest since April 2020. At the same time, the share of respondents saying they expected their financial situations to improve over the next year rose to the highest level since February 2025.
Inflation expectations for three and five years ahead were both unchanged at 3%.
