US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Leaves Door Open For September Rate Cut

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to be opening the doors a bit for a potential rate cut in September, stating that data around key economic indicators would determine whether the rate-setting panel would resume the cuts.

Powell, during the press briefing following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, said a "reasonable base case is (that) the (tariff) effect could be short-lived."

"The main number you have to look at now is the unemployment rate," Powell said, while noting that a "good amount" of economic data will be available before the FOMC takes the next call in September.

In the meeting concluded on Wednesday, the Fed – on expected lines – left the benchmark lending rates unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. In its statement, the FOMC noted that uncertainty over the economic outlook remains "elevated", and the decision to hold the rates has been taken in view of its goal to achieve maximum employment and bring inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run.

The “Dot plot” of rate projections, however, signals a lowering of the key lending rates by 50 basis points in 2025. This indicates that two rate cuts of quarter-point each could be on the cards in the year ahead. This is the same as what was projected in March.

Powell, in the press briefing, said the Fed's "modestly restrictive" policy seems appropriate at the current stage.

“Today we decided to leave our policy rate where it's been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive... It seems to me, and to almost the whole committee, that the economy is not performing as though restrictive policy is holding it back inappropriately and modestly restrictive policy seems appropriate," he said.

Notably, the FOMC decision to hold the rates was not unanimous, as nine members voted in favour of it, whereas two others voted against the same.

The dissenting members were governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. This marks the first instance since 1993 when two Fed governors have opposed a decision.