US Consumer Sentiment Declines To Near Lowest On Record
A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown.
US consumer sentiment tumbled to near the lowest on record as the government shutdown weighed on the economic outlook and high prices soured views about personal finances.
The preliminary November sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 50.3, just above a June 2022 reading of 50 that was the weakest in University of Michigan data back to 1978. The gauge was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown.
The drop in overall sentiment was broad across age, income and political groups, the report showed. Among Democrats and political independents, confidence slid to the lowest in data back to 1984.
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While spontaneous mentions of high prices increased for a fifth month, inflation expectations eased over the longer term. Consumers saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.6% over the next five to 10 years, a three-month low. Price expectations for the next year edged up, the data issued Friday showed.
“Consumers perceive pressure on their personal finances from multiple directions,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “Consumers also anticipate that labor markets will continue to weaken in the future and expect to be personally affected.”
Similarly, separate data on Friday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed a third straight month of increasing anxiety about the job market. The perceived likelihood of becoming unemployed within the next year climbed to 43% in October, the highest since April.
The University of Michigan’s measure of current personal finances declined to a six-year low, while buying conditions for big-ticket goods were considered the worst since mid-2022.
Fears about unemployment jumped this month, with 71% of respondents to the university’s survey expecting it to rise in the year ahead, more than double the year-ago share.
“Moreover, consumers’ expectations over their own probability of job loss worsened this month, reaching the highest reading since March 2025,” Hsu said.
On Wednesday, ADP Research Institute reported that private-sector payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, the first increase in three months. The modest pace of hiring, alongside a series of high-profile layoff announcements from major companies, helps explain why consumers remain pessimistic about the labor market.
The expectations index slid to a six-month low of 49. The longest government shutdown in US history is obscuring the view of the economy as key federal data are delayed. Private-sector sources, including the university’s sentiment survey, provide a partial substitute amid the blackout. The November survey was conducted from Oct. 21 to Nov. 3.
“While any recovery when the shutdown ends would leave sentiment low by historical standards, we still expect fairly healthy consumption growth this quarter and into next year, as the link between sentiment and spending has been weak in recent years,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
