EU-US Trade Agreement Now Hinges Mostly On Trump’s Verdict

After months of intensive talks and shuttle diplomacy, a trade agreement between the European Union and the US now rests mostly on Donald Trump. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Scotland to meet the US president on Sunday, as the two sides aim to conclude a deal ahead of Friday’s deadline, at which point 30% tariffs on the bloc’s exports to the US are otherwise due to kick in.

“Intensive negotiations at technical and political have been ongoing,” said Paula Pinho, von der Leyen’s spokesperson. “Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.” 

EU officials have repeatedly cautioned that a deal ultimately rests with Trump, making the final outcome difficult to predict. The US president recently negotiated with Japan and appeared to change certain final terms on the fly before a deal was eventually agreed earlier this week.

The EU and US have been zeroing in on an agreement over the past week that would see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its trade with the US. Limited exemptions are expected for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs, Bloomberg previously reported.

Steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota under the arrangements under discussion, but above that threshold they would face a higher tariff of 50%.

Alongside a universal levy, the US president has hit cars and auto parts with a 25% levy, and steel and aluminum with double that. He’s also threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month, and recently announced a 50% tariff on copper.

The EU is expecting the same 15% ceiling on some sectors that could be the target of future tariffs, including pharmaceuticals, according to people familiar with the matter. But that’s one of the key points where Trump’s position will be crucial to a deal being sealed, the people added.

“We’ll see if we make a deal,” Trump said as he arrived in Scotland on Friday. “Ursula will be here, highly respected woman. So we look forward to that.”

Trump reiterated that he believed there’s “a 50-50 chance” of a deal with the EU, saying there were sticking points on “maybe 20 different things” that he didn’t want to detail publicly.

“That would be actually the biggest deal of them all if we make it,” the president said. 

Trump gave similar chances of an agreement with European negotiators before leaving Washington, but also said the EU had a “pretty good chance” of reaching an agreement.

The US president announced tariffs on almost all US trading partners in April, declaring his intent to bring back domestic manufacturing, pay for a massive tax-cut extension, and stop the rest of the world from — as Trump has characterized it — taking advantage of the US. 

In addition to levies, any agreement would cover non-tariff barriers, cooperation on economic security matters, and strategic purchases by the EU in sectors such as energy and artificial intelligence chips, Bloomberg previously reported. The bloc has also offered to remove tariffs on many industrial goods and non-sensitive agricultural imports.

The terms of any initial deal, which is likely to take the form of a short joint statement if agreed upon, would need to be approved by member states, some of the people said. The statement would be seen as a stepping stone toward more detailed talks.  

Because of the ongoing uncertainty, the EU has in parallel sketched out countermeasures in the event of a no-deal scenario. That would see it quickly hit American exports with up to 30% tariffs on some €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of goods — including Boeing Co. aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey — in the event of a no-deal, and if Trump carries through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc’s exports after Aug. 1 or in future. The package also includes some export restrictions on scrap metals.

In a no-deal scenario, the bloc is also prepared to move forward with its anti-coercion instrument, a potent trade tool that would eventually allow it to target other areas such as market access, services and restrictions on public contracts, provided a majority of member states backs its use.

While Trump didn’t explicitly link negotiations to non-trade matters on Friday, he did suggest that he planned to raise concerns over migration flows. Trump has imposed strict anti-immigration policies since returning to office, carrying out a mass deportation effort of those in the US illegally while also narrowing pathways to legally move to the US.

“You got to stop this horrible invasion that’s happening to Europe, many countries in Europe,” Trump said, adding that he believed “this immigration is killing Europe.”

© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.