Mahagathbandhan Suffers Major Setback In Bihar With RJD Seeing Biggest Losses
In 2020, the RJD had emerged as the single-largest party, winning 75 out of 144 seats with a strike rate of 52%.
Mahagathbandhan's hopes of a comeback in Bihar took a nosedive, with trends in the 2025 Assembly election showing a sweeping advantage for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
As the largest party in the MGB in Bihar, the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) took the biggest hit, trailing in 38 seats versus 2020 assembly elections at the time of publishing. In a symbolic blow to the alliance, the tide has turned in Raghopur where BJP's Satish Yadav has overtaken the RJD leader.
The numbers leave little ambiguity about where the verdict is heading. The NDA is currently leading in 190 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan trails far behind at just 49. This marks a dramatic fall from the 2020 election, when the opposition alliance had won 114 seats.
Even those attempting to carve out an independent political path in the state are acknowledging the trend. Jan Suraaj Bihar president Manoj Bharti reacted to the NDA’s early dominance by saying, “We have been saying from the start that we are trying to bring new politics to Bihar… These trends show that people have failed to understand us, and we also failed to make them understand.”
Psephologist Amitabh Tiwari summed up the scale of the setback, pointing to an unusual surge in support from women voters for the NDA. “The margin seems to be 20-30% over the opposition. BJP and JDU each are more than the entire Mahagathbandhan's vote share. It shows the scale of the victory,” he said.
The extent of the RJD’s setback is particularly stark. The party, which contested 143 seats, is ahead in only 34. In 2020, the RJD had emerged as the single-largest party, winning 75 out of 144 seats with a strike rate of 52%.
The Congress, too, has delivered one of its weakest performances in the state. Contesting 61 seats this time, it leads in only five. Its performance had been poor even in 2020, when it won 19 of the 70 seats allotted to it.
Meanwhile, the NDA’s strength outperforms its 2020 dominance, when the coalition secured a majority with the BJP winning 74 seats and the JD(U) 43.
The 2025 trends suggest that the momentum generated by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s “vote-chori” campaign and concerns over the ECI’s SIR voter roll revision have failed to translate into electoral gains. For the Mahagathbandhan, the early count points to a steep decline, marking one of their most significant electoral setbacks in recent years.
