India's Exports Rebound In November On Supply-Chain Shifts, US Holiday Restocking: GTRI

Supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season helped India's exports rebound in November, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.

After recording contraction for two consecutive months, India's merchandise exports to the US rose 22.61% to $6.98 billion in November despite steep 50% tariffs on domestic goods, according to commerce ministry data.

Imports during the month grew 38.29% to $5.25 billion.

During the April-November period of this fiscal, the country's exports to the US increased 11.38% to $59.04 billion, while imports rose 13.49% to $35.4 billion.

The US has imposed a sweeping 50% tariff on Indian goods entering American markets from Aug. 27.

The Global Trade Research Initiative said in sectors such as electronics and machinery, "supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season also supported shipments."

It added that the rebound after September therefore reflects adjustment to a tougher tariff regime, not relief, and remains fragile, driven by short-term coping strategies rather than a lasting improvement.

The drop in India's exports to the US between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes, which led buyers to delay orders and run down inventories, GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

"Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting, absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products," he said.

According to a GTRI report, the fall-and-recovery pattern is visible in 85% of India's November exports across most product categories.

These include electronics (smartphones), gems and jewellery, machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.

Exports of smartphones, India's single largest export, fell from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, then recovered to $1.8 billion in November.

Exports of gems and jewellery, a category that can swing sharply with demand and pricing, plunged from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, before surging back to $406.2 million in November.

It said that a similar pattern played out in machinery and mechanical appliances where exports eased to $516.8 million in September, then returned to $614.6 million last month.

Pharmaceutical exports reached $669.2 million in November.

Mineral fuels and oils fell moderately despite being tariff-exempt from $291.5 million in May to $251.5 million in September before rising to $274.3 million in November, it added.