US De-Minimis Rollback Can Raise Landed Costs By Up To 15%, Cut Indian Shipments By 25%

The proposed removal of the US de minimis exemption, which currently allows duty-free imports below $800, is set to hit Indian cross-border trade hard, with landed costs expected to rise by as much as 8–15% and shipment volumes to fall 15–25%, according to industry experts.

The US market is India’s largest for direct-to-consumer exports and over 35% of these shipments use the de minimis route. The rollback could therefore trigger widespread disruptions across price-sensitive sectors such as textiles, apparel, consumer electronics, jewellery, handicrafts and specialty foods.

"The removal of the de minimis exception could increase landed costs by 8–15% for small and mid-sized exporters. For India, where over 35% of D2C exports to the U.S. depend on this route, exporters may be forced to consolidate shipments, which will raise compliance and logistics costs," said Sunil Kharbanda, chief executive officer at Trezix, warning that the policy shift could slow India's e-commerce momentum.

For cross-border payments, the immediate impact will be lower flows. "We expect a 15–25% immediate drop in shipment volumes, especially in categories like apparel, jewellery, handicrafts, beauty, and small consumer goods. This means lower transaction volumes for payment firms, particularly from MSMEs and D2C brands relying on sub-$800 shipments," said Sanjay Tripathi, co-founder of BriskPe.

Tripathi added that while the short term will be painful, exporters will adapt through bulk shipments, nearshore fulfilment hubs and higher-value product mixes. But he warned that this adjustment would lock in a structurally higher cost base.

The industry is calling for policy cushioning, including diplomatic talks with Washington, GST rebates, export incentives, and stronger trade infrastructure, such as bonded warehouses, to safeguard MSME competitiveness in the US market.