Monsoon On Track: Kharif Sowing Gathers Pace, July Remains Crucial

Kharif sowing has picked up momentum as the monsoon gathers pace. Overall sowing area is 11% higher as compared with the same period last year, covering a total of 262.15 lakh hectares as of June-end, according to data published by the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

Sowing areas for rice, pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, and cotton have exceeded last year's figures despite the variability in monsoons and uneven distribution of rainfall, the data showed.

As a share of the normal area coverage, while about 16% of pulses are already sown, about a fourth of cereals and oilseeds have been sown so far. From a sowing perspective, monsoon performance in July is more important as nearly 80% of the sowing is completed by this period, said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank. El Nino neutral conditions are expected to prevail throughout the monsoon season, and are expected to aid outlook.

After briefly stalling in the first half of June, the south-west monsoon rainfall saw a pick-up, with all-India seasonal cumulative rainfall from June to July 2 at +11%. Monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole in July 2025 is also most likely to be above normal, exceeding 106% of the long-period average, according to the IMD.

On a year-on-year basis, food inflation is expected to continue to moderate in June, said Sengupta, who estimates headline inflation at 2.2% in June. Vegetable prices continue to contract for the fifth consecutive month on an annual basis. Though, on a month-on-month basis some pick-up is seen in vegetable prices due to unseasonal rainfall but its softer than the rise last year, she said.

While pulses prices also continue to track lower on an annual basis, a pick-up is seen in prices of edible oils and fruits, she said, adding that the rise in edible oil prices continue despite the cut in import duty.