In Charts: India's Economic Transformation Through PM Narendra Modi's Tenure
India's gross domestic product has seen an approximately threefold rise over the past decade.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 75th birthday, on Wednesday, comes in the backdrop of him completing 11 years in office. The birthday coincides in a year marred by economic volatility, predominantly due to the US tariffs. Still, domestic and global financial institutions have recognised India as a bright spot, as the country holds on to its tag of the fastest growing major economy globally.
In 2025, India has seen a sovereign credit rating upgrade from S&P Global to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' with a stable outlook in mid-August 2025, aided by prospects of continued policy stability and high infrastructure investment, and underpinned by the government's commitment to lower fiscal deficit and government debt.
The fiscal year is also set to end with India overtaking Japan as the world's fourth largest economy, after the US, China, and Germany in 2025 (FY26), according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund.
India's gross domestic product has seen an approximately threefold rise over the past decade.
Modi has said that India will be one of the top three economies in the world in his third term. That's a likely outcome. It is expected to overtake Germany to clinch the third spot in 2027 (FY28). India will jump seven places upwards since 2014 when the country was ranked the tenth largest economy.
According to the latest quarterly estimates released by the government's statistical office last month, India's GDP growth came in at 7.8% in the April-June period. This was the sharpest GDP growth in the last five quarters and significantly higher than estimates. To be sure, the low price deflators contributed to the high growth number, with nominal growth at 8.8%.
Retail Inflation
On inflation, the past decade was characterised by a distinct decline, interspersed with bouts of spike due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The period was characterised by India adopting the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime in 2016 by amending the RBI Act, 1934.
As per a recent discussion paper by the RBI, the inflation levels have seen a distinct decline with the average since adoption of flexible inflation targeting at 4.9% vis-à-vis an average of 6.8% over the pre-FIT period in the current series.
Notably, the average inflation hovered around the 4% target from 2016-2019. With the outbreak of the pandemic and associated supply chain disruptions, inflation breached the upper tolerance band in few quarters during 2020-21 and 2021-22. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation again veered away from its target under the impact of a broad-based spike in global commodity prices, the resurgence of supply chain and logistics bottlenecks and sanctions.
As a result, all three components of inflation – food, fuel and core – went above the target for the first time, with inflation reaching 7.8% in April 2022 — its peak for the FIT period.
From the pandemic and war-induced peak in inflation during 2022-23, inflation has receded progressively. India's retail inflation fell to the lowest in eight years in July this year, before a modest reversal in August. The consumer price index-based inflation was at 2.07% in August, compared to 1.55% in July, according to government data.
Exports
India's cumulative exports, including merchandise and services, rose by over 65% in the past decade, to a record high of $824.9 billion in FY25, according to data from the RBI. Services exports continued to drive growth momentum, rising to $387.5 billion in FY25, up 13.6% from the previous year.
The cumulative exports in the ongoing fiscal year till August 2025 is estimated at $349.35 billion, growing by 6.2% compared to the corresponding year-ago period.
Employment
While the past decade appears to be marked by significant job growth, India's track record in creating adequate employment remains challenged by quality of jobs and lack of skilling.
As per the data available in latest Annual Periodic Labour Force Survey, at the all-India level, unemployment saw a minor drop from 5% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2024 for persons aged 15 and above.
