Impact Of Trump Tariffs On Steel To Be Muted, India's Retaliations Can Hurt US More: GTRI

The impact of the Trump administration's 25% tariffs on iron, steel, and aluminum products on India can be muted and any potential retaliations will hurt the US more, the Global Trade Research Initiative said on Wednesday.

"Strikingly, India imports more iron, steel (excluding finished products), and aluminum from the US than it exports, meaning any countermeasures from India could have a greater economic impact on American industries," GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said in a statement.

In 2023, India exported $494.2 million worth of iron and steel to the US while importing $842 million. Trade in aluminum was nearly balanced, with exports at $859.8 million and imports at $898.9 million, according to Srivastava.

"Unlike in 2019, when India imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to similar duties, this time, New Delhi appears reluctant to take countermeasures," he added.

Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik has also said the impact would be minimal. "We don't export much to the USA. Our total steel export to the USA is less than 1,00,000 tonnes. So I don't think that will have much impact on the Indian steel sector," the official told PTI.

The GTRI flagged that the government's quality control order on steel fasteners could lead to severe shortage in the next week as the Bureau of Indian Standards' certification process had not approved any foreign or domestic manufacturers.

If no manufacturers are approved, imports of the essential commodity can be halted from next Thursday. Fasteners find applications across sectors, such as construction and infrastructure, automobile and aerospace, machinery and equipment manufacturing, and electrical and electronics.

It urged that the government withdraw the QCOs on fasteners. In 2024, India's global imports of steel fasteners amounted to $1.1 billion, with key sources including China ($306 million), Japan ($127 million) and South Korea ($111 million).