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Economic Survey: India 2019-20 GDP Growth Projected At 7%

Economic Survey: India 2019-20 GDP Growth Projected At 7%
Krishnamurthy V Subramanian addresses the 4th National Conference on Economics of Competition Law in New Delhi. (Source: PTI)
7 years ago
Catch all live updates on the Economic Survey 2018-19 by KV Subramanian here.

Economic Survey 2019: Key Highlights Including Focus on MSMEs, Judicial Capacity, Minimum Wages 

Agriculture policies should focus on dairying as India is the largest producer of milk; livestock rearing particularly of small ruminants and the fisheries sector, as India is the second largest producer there, the document said.

It added that the thrust should be on micro-irrigation to improve water use efficiency.

  • 89 percent of groundwater extracted is used for irrigation. Hence, focus should shift from land productivity to ‘irrigation water productivity’. Thrust should be on micro-irrigation to improve water use efficiency.
  • Fertiliser response ratio has been declining over time. Organic and natural farming techniques including Zero Budget Natural Farming can improve both water use efficiency & soil fertility.

Economic Survey 2019: Private Investment Key To Sparking Off A ‘Virtuous Cycle’ For Indian Economy

Economic Survey 2019: Redesigning India’s Minimum Wage System

Despite being one of the youngest countries in the world in terms of average age of the population, India's policy makers need to prepare for those who are ageing, the survey said.

  • The country needs to invest in healthcare and increase the retirement age in a phase manner, it added.
  • Sharp slowdown in population growth expected in next 2 decades. Most of India to enjoy demographic dividend while some states will transition to ageing societies by 2030s.
  • National Total Fertility Rate expected to be below replacement rate by 2021.
  • Working age population to grow by roughly 9.7mn per year during 2021-31 and 4.2mn per year during 2031-41.
  • Significant decline to be witnessed in elementary school-going children (5-14 age group) over next two decades.
  • States need to consolidate/merge schools to make them viable rather than build new ones.

Economic Survey 2019: Existing Incentives Encourage Dwarf MSMEs Instead of Large Firms

  • Around 87.5 percent of pending cases are in the district and subordinate courts.
  • 100 percent clearance rate can be achieved by filling out merely 2,279 vacancies in the lower courts and 93 in high courts.
  • States of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal need special attention.

The survey proposed a reduction in policy uncertainty by the way of keeping the policy consistency with the forward guidance and assuring quality of processes in government department.

  • Significant reduction in Economic Policy Uncertainty in India over the last one decade, even when economic policy uncertainty increased in major countries, especially the U.S.
  • Uncertainty dampens investment growth in India for about five quarters.
  • Lower economic policy uncertainty can foster a salutary investment climate.

India Expects Economy to Rebound This Year

The Economic Survey highlighted the importance of reviving investment in the economy, saying that it creates a "virtuous cycle". “The higher capacity utilisation and uptick in business expectations should increase investment activity,” Krishnamurthy Subramanian writes in the survey, according to Bloomberg.

Investment in the economy has been weak due to deleveraging of corporate balance sheets. In the economic survey for last year, former CEA Arvind Subramanian had also highlighted the urgent need to revive investment.

"The ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP climbed from 26.5 percent in 2003, reached a peak of 35.6 percent in 2007, and then slid back to 26.4 percent in 2017," Arvind Subramanian had written.

The Economic Survey, tabled on Thursday, said that India’s Monetary Policy Committee framework has been successful in containing inflation.

The new monetary policy framework was adopted in 2015 amid high retail inflation. Helped by factors such as low oil prices, inflation has since come down sharply. For two consecutive financial years, average inflation has remained close to the MPC’s target of 4 (+/- 2) percent.

India’s 2018-2019 economic survey - a document authored by the Chief Economic Advisor to the government - has been tabled in the parliament today by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

Newly appointed CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian along with his team will address a press conference at 1:15 p.m. thereafter.

The annual document acts as a platform to pitch larger economic ideas and concepts which the government may or may not act upon. For example, former CEA Arvind Subramanaian restarted the debate on Universal Basic Income and its application in India. He also started the debate on the use of Reserve Bank of India’s excess reserves for narrowing the fiscal deficit.

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