US Tariffs Begin To Bite As India’s Exports Dip For First Time In 2025
Government data shows the US remains India’s top export destination for April–October 2025 at $52.15 billion, but the trend has turned sharply in recent months.
India’s export engine hit its first speed bump of the year in October 2025, with outbound shipments falling by $4 billion, reflecting the combined impact of a high base, weakening demand in key markets, and early signs of stress from the new US reciprocal tariffs.
For October, merchandise exports softened to $34.38 billion from $38.98 billion in the year-ago period. Government data shows the US remains India’s top export destination for April–October 2025 at $52.15 billion, but the trend has turned sharply in recent months. Exports to the US have been sliding month-on-month through September and October, with October shipments dropping to $6.3 billion from $6.9 billion a year earlier.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal attributed this drop partly to reciprocal tariffs affecting sectors such as textiles, gems & jewellery, shrimp, leather goods, and other labour-intensive categories.
The hit has been most visible in job-heavy clusters such as Tiruppur for textiles, Surat for gems & jewellery, and coastal Andhra Pradesh for shrimp, where buyers have started shifting orders to Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico, which currently enjoy tariff advantages.
Beyond the US, exports to Singapore also declined, largely due to lower petroleum shipments, adding to the October slowdown. The Commerce Ministry stated that last year’s record October created a high base effect, exaggerating the scale of this year’s dip.
Despite the weakness, electronics, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and textiles continue to drive cumulative growth for FY26.
Overall, the October numbers mark the first visible imprint of the US tariff regime on India’s trade performance, raising concerns not just about exports, but the employment ripple effect in India’s most labour-intensive manufacturing belts.
