Stop Building Business Plans Around A Possible US-India Trade Deal, Says Deepak Shenoy — Here's Why
Shenoy said this was the “17,500th time” there has been talk about a trade deal, and while there is a chance it could happen, he stressed that the default assumption should be that it will not.
Capitalmind AMC CEO Deepak Shenoy has cautioned against building market or business assumptions around the possibility of a US trade deal, saying exporters should plan as if no agreement will materialise.
Shenoy said this was the “17,500th time” there has been talk about a trade deal, and while he acknowledged there is a chance it could happen, he stressed that the default assumption should be that it will not.
“The deal won’t happen. Period,” Shenoy said, adding that businesses should not base their assumptions on any kind of deal. Instead, exporters must find other markets to do business, noting that many have already done so or shifted sales to the domestic market.
He also warned that even if a deal were reached, the other side keeps changing its stance every day, making any agreement unlikely to last. As a result, exporters and manufacturers need to diversify rather than depend on one market.
Shenoy said companies should assume exports to the US could drop sharply and plan accordingly, concluding that there is no reason to celebrate or even expect a trade deal.
India remains one of the few countries yet to reach a trade deal with the US, meaning the country still faces tariff overhangs, which in turn, has elongated the cautious sentiment in the market.
