Reliance Industries Is Up 27% This Year, And Analysts Still See More Upside in 2026 — Here's Why
Even after its outperformance, analysts say RIL continues to trade at a meaningful discount to peers such as DMart and Bharti Airtel.
Reliance Industries Ltd. has already delivered a strong year, rising 27% year-to-date and comfortably beating the Nifty’s 17% gain. Yet analysts remain upbeat heading into 2026, citing more room for valuation re-rating, a turnaround in the company’s refining cycle, and a series of catalysts expected next year.
Brokerage firm JPMorgan has revised the stock’s price target to Rs 1,727, with an 'overweight' call maintained.
Even after its outperformance, analysts say RIL continues to trade at a meaningful discount to peers such as DMart and Bharti Airtel. Their measure of the implied holding-company discount for Jio and Retail has narrowed from 30% to roughly 15%, despite the recent correction in DMart’s multiples.
RIL endured steep earnings cuts through 2024 after refining and petchem margins weakened sharply. But the drag on earnings appears to be over, notes the brokerage. Consensus estimates have stabilised in recent months, and there have even been upgrades to FY27 Ebitda forecasts.
The firm’s refining margin tracker shows a quarterly jump of around $3.8 per barrel. Even after adjusting for a $1 per barrel hit from the loss of discounted Russian crude, current gross refining margins could lift FY27 projections by about 6%, says JPMorgan.
Diesel cracks have shown notable strength, supported by supply disruptions heading into the winter. The brokerage says that petchem margins remain soft, but could see some offset from a weaker rupee.
All three RIL businesses are expected to report solid performance in the third quarter:
O2C: buoyed by stronger refining margins
Telecom: seen delivering around 15% YoY EBITDA growth, supported by Jio’s margin expansion over the past two quarters
Retail: benefitting from seasonality and GST cuts
Retail’s strong base from last year may temper the YoY growth print, but analysts note the market is likely to view anything around 15% or higher positively.
Stack Of Catalysts Ahead In 2026
The outlook for 2026 is anchored around multiple triggers:
Jio is expected to raise tariffs ahead of its proposed IPO, with hopes of further hikes post-listing.
Reliance Retail, after completing its restructuring, is expected to sustain double-digit Ebitda growth.
The new energy venture should begin contributing initial revenues in the first half of the next fiscal.
Momentum in media and real estate could add upside
While analysts caution that RIL may not repeat this year’s returns, they argue that favourable valuations combined with next year’s catalysts should support strong relative performance in 2026. The key risk remains high capital expenditure pressuring free cash flow.
