Obesity Drugs Pick Pace In India — Can Consumption Sector Withstand A $21 Billion Disruption? | Open Interest
In this edition of Open Interest, we look at how the focus on GLP-1 could reduce household dietary intake and grocery bills.
When the world’s largest beverage maker, The Coca-Cola Company, believes that GLP-1, a hormone that plays a crucial role in regulating blood sugar, appetite, and digestion, could impact global consumption patterns, it’s worth paying attention.
In a recent earnings call, James Quincey, the chairman and CEO of beverage giant, noted anecdotal evidence suggesting that GLP-1 is affecting food and beverage consumption. Nearer home, Eli Lilly & Co., the company selling weight-loss and diabetes drug in India, has seen sales of its drug Mounjaro spike 60% in India in May versus a month earlier.
“There is anecdotal evidence that people are consuming slightly less alcohol, and some are switching to non-alcoholic beverages,” said Quincey. He added that while the impact is not yet significant, CFO John Murphy believes this is part of a broader trend, as more people are becoming conscious of what they consume.
GLP-1, or Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (semaglutide) or similar molecules, is a hormone that helps regulate diabetes while also affecting appetite and weight. It is increasingly being used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity.
GLP-1 Era Is Neigh
The focus on GLP-1 could reduce household dietary intake and grocery bills. Is this happening in India yet? The answer is no. Will it happen? The answer is yes. Often referred to as the diabetes capital of the world, India could become one of the largest markets for GLP-1-based treatments. The country is estimated to have over 8 crore (80 million) diabetes patients and more than 10 crore (100 million) people classified as obese.
Globally, the GLP-1 market is valued at around $50 billion and is expected to grow significantly as patents for the initial versions of these drugs expire in 2026.
In India, the GLP-1 market is still in its infancy, currently valued at under $200 million. At present, the drug is primarily supplied by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with prices that are out of reach for most consumers. However, this is expected to change once semaglutide’s early patents expire in 2026, opening the door for generics in emerging markets like India. Prices could drop by more than half, making generic semaglutide far more affordable than branded versions.
According to some surveys, households using GLP-1 have seen a reduction in food and grocery bills by approximately 5% over a six-month period. This is due to reduced appetite and a greater feeling of satiety. GLP-1 also helps increase insulin production, lower blood sugar levels, reduce liver fat and inflammation, and improve cardiovascular function. In short, it contributes to lower body weight, blood pressure, plasma glucose, and lipid levels.
Impact On Household Budgets
Assuming the average Indian household spends Rs 30,000 per month on food and groceries, a 5% reduction equates to Rs 1,500 per month or Rs 18,000 annually. For 10 crore people, this could translate into a potential reduction of Rs 1.8 lakh crore—or over $21 billion—per year. That’s the scale of consumption impact possible if the Indian market gains access to affordable, generic semaglutide. The potential market for this drug in India could reach $10 billion over the next 5–10 years, with the global market expected to exceed $130 billion.
Over the past year, there has been growing scrutiny over sugar content in baby products, biscuits, chocolates, and beverages. Consumers are increasingly critical of companies that raise sugar content to offset rising raw material costs. For example, chocolate makers have increased sugar content to compensate for higher cocoa prices.
As obesity becomes classified as a disease and GLP-1 usage rises, it will reshape consumption and lifestyle patterns across sectors—food, retail, insurance, healthcare, and more.
Changing food habits will affect household grocery bills and lead to reduced consumption of salty snacks, sweets, and soft drinks. It may also encourage more home-cooked meals, impacting quick-service restaurants (QSRs), dine-in services, food delivery platforms, and grocery delivery services.
Roadmap For FMCG, Hospital Sectors
In the FMCG sector, food and beverage companies will need to adapt their offerings to align with this shift. The entry of GLP-1 into households will influence what people eat and drink. Snack, biscuit, confectionery, and beverage makers will need to pivot to maintain market share and navigate this disruption.
Currently, traditional insurance covers diabetes only if fully disclosed, while obesity is typically not covered. Insurance policies will likely begin to account for the impact of GLP-1.
Hospitals may also feel the impact, as GLP-1 could reduce the need for bariatric surgeries—which currently cost between Rs 2–6 lakhs—and help patients lose up to 20% of their body weight.
The GLP-1 era is poised to reshape consumption patterns. Let’s hope companies don’t end up with an “Ozempic face.”
