November Auto Sales Preview: Surprises To Allure Despite High Base Month
Certain automakers are expected to show growth in November despite a split Diwali period this year.
November 2024 is going to be a month to watch out for in terms of automotive sales. High-base effect will be in play as the auspicious five-day period around Diwali was split between October and November this year, compared to falling mid-November last year.
Despite this challenging backdrop, certain automakers are expected to show growth, with surprises popping up in numbers, according to analysts. One of the major outperformer is likely to be Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.
Two Wheelers: Slower Than Usual
Most analysts are estimating a slower than usual month for most two-wheeler companies. But the street shouldn’t be worried seeing the same. This is due to the rank outperformance versus passenger car companies in the current fiscal year.
TVS Motor Co. is expected to be the growth driver in the two-wheeler segment with 6–7% growth. Another key player to watch out for in the space will be the Royal Enfield owner Eicher Motors Ltd. Both companies reported very strong festive season performances—TVS logged 17% growth in October and November this year over the year-ago period, while Eicher Motors grew 15%. Still, they are expected to show low to mid single-digit growth for November.
Bajaj Auto Ltd. and Hero MotoCorp Ltd. are expected to report a slow month post the bumper festive period.
Four Wheelers: Maruti’s ‘Dzire’ Has Finally Working
M&M will continue to show the highest growth among passenger car makers led by ‘SUV-fication’ theme to continue working for the Thar maker.
But the key surprise to watch out for will be Maruti Suzuki. The company is expected to show mid-single growth despite a strong base year in November 2023. The average discounts by the company of roughly Rs 30,000 per car, along with the launch of the fourth-generation Dzire might translate into a good November for the company. They also mentioned in their quarterly conference call that inventory is now at 30 days, which is the minimum level maintained by the company.
Tata Motors Ltd. and the newly listed Hyundai Motor India Ltd. continue their flat to negative bias . Tata Motors launched both EV and petrol variants of Curvv, but they failed to enthuse the street.
Commercial Vehicles: First Meaningful Uptrend For Tata, Eicher
Commercial vehicle companies have had a difficult time in the month under review due to slower government push on account of elections. The first half has been flat for all companies, and they are betting on the second half to show growth.
This looks finally to be working, with government capex seen to have started by October and continuing this month. This will be beneficial for Tata Motors and VE Commercial Vehicles Ltd.—a joint venture between Eicher Motors and Volvo Group, as per analysts, with Ashok Leyland showing low single-digit growth.
Tractors: M&M Stands Tall
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. has been a clear outperformer in tractor industry this year despite most players showing negative sales growth. Between April to October this year the company’s sales have grown almost 10%. In comparison, Escorts Kubota Ltd.—its only other listed peer—has shown 3% growth in sales.
M&M is expected to grow almost 5% in November, while Escorts Kubota will show 2% fall in sales.
